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Former president of Petrobras, Jose Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo, 68, is considered one of the oil and industry experts and screened worldwide in 2007 when pre-salt was discovered during its management. During this period, the country has also achieved self-sufficiency in oil.
Gabrielli takes stock of the current situation and exposes the prospects of the largest Brazilian company in its various areas of operations, after four years of Lava Jato and nearly three and a half years of management. pro-market business management Aldemir Bendine.
In case of persistent current government policy, the company will reach until the end of the year, under the best conditions to reach the peak of the largest oil and gas segment of the planet, a few years ago. disintegration commanded by Temer at half size and relegated to the role of pre-salt oil producer
The detail of the simultaneous attack on several fronts makes it possible to conclude that it is pointless to blame the corruption of a handful of ex-employees by the large-scale dismantling, operated concatenely by its leaders, especially the former president Pedro Parente, in partnership with the Congress, l & # 39; executive and the judiciary
The crimes committed by a handful of former evildoers, however great, do not explain the method and stubbornness used to plunder the depleted oil and gas reserves at a low price. Read more:
Atypical election puts banks on hold
"Maintaining current interest does not justify commemoration" former prison guards Jorge Luiz Zelada, Nestor Cerveró, Paulo Robert Costa, Renato de Sousa Duque and former directors Eduardo Musa, Luis Carlos Moreira da Silva and Pedro José Barusco Filho.
Nor do they justify dismantling the industry's "well to the post" vertical structure, dismantling Lava Jato, the country's largest production chain, forcing refineries to increase fuel imports from competitors foreigners. blowing up its petrochemical arm, Braskem, a crucial market for oil companies in the face of declining consumption of petroleum products, due to the increased use of renewable fuels and the advent of electric and hybrid cars .
Gabrielli is a civil action pending before the Federal Court of Accounts, the Office of the Federal Comptroller and the Securities and Exchange Commission, all of which are subject to costs of omission, but no criminal action has been taken engaged against Lava Jato or in another area.
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and the rest of the United States declines quickly and pre-salt is the best option (Wanezza Soares)
The destruction of Petrobras, symbol of a nation that once rehearsed development, nonetheless obeys an indestructible logic: it fits perfectly into the United States states fuel supply schedule, Gabrielli details.
A state strategy, it must be added, led by the private oil companies that are articulated and which find here exceptional conditions to participate in the offensive international celebration of indigenous heritage.
In this interview, Gabrielli, Ph.D. in Economics at Boston University, researcher at the London School of Economics and Political Science, former director of the Federal University from Bahia and former director of the Faculty He describes the war with Petrobras and the future of Brazil
CartaCapital: In the most recent of the many attacks on the pre-salt, President Temer sanctioned Thursday 14 the law allows pre-salt oil owned by the state to sell pre-salt oil directly to businesses. Do you know a precedent in the world of such a fast and complete disposal of the strategic oil badets of a country to the competitors of its government-controlled oil company in its own business with the help of the Executive, legislative and judicial? 19659018] José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo: The conflict of access to hydrocarbon resources is intense worldwide. The pendulum between the market and the state varies according to the historical moments of each country. International corporations control a very small volume of international reserves, which are mbadively under the control of states and state-owned enterprises.
Sometimes, the internal forces relations of the countries allow an overwhelming entry of international companies on the basis of the lack of capital and technologies in the host countries. This claim does not continue compared to Brazil, which is a technological leader and has the capital to develop its resources in the long term, even with short-term difficulties.
CC: What do you attribute to this escalation? : Petroleum is a strategic product and even private companies work in coordination with their states. The main geopolitical conflicts in the world revolve around the guarantee of this access. Some countries, like the United States, are establishing their energy security as the main motivator of their foreign policy.
The United States has significantly increased its production in recent years with the widespread use of fracturing (injection of high pressure liquid into rocks to open cracks and extract oil and gas) shale gas and badociated condensates, significantly reducing its dependence on imported oil over the next five to seven years. The decline in production, however, is accelerated and new sources will be needed by the middle of the next decade.
To this end, these new sources must begin the exploration and development of systems that take four to five years to begin production. The opening of new exploratory areas in the Brazilian pre-salt fits perfectly in this American calendar
CC: How do you see the internal reaction to this investment?
JSG: The key question is whether Brazil needs to accelerate exploration of its potential areas in the next two or three years, or whether it can wait this period to recover the financial situation of Petrobras and rebuild the oil and gas production chain, and gas decimated by Lava Jato. The awareness of Brazilian society of the long-term strategic importance of access to these resources will determine the response to this international offensive
CC: What will happen to Petrobras and Brazil at the end of this process? : In the going pace, and with the policy changes for the sector implemented by the current government, Petrobras will be a medium-sized business, focused particularly on the production of disintegrated pre-salt oil.
It could be one of the largest oil companies in the world, integrated from production to refining and distribution, with the expansion of exploratory horizons and taking advantage of the size of the derivatives market servants.
The supply chain in Brazil will be crushed by the entry of international competitors, imports and the absence of large buyers, with the spray of operators in the Brazilian pre-salt . It could be a growing industry given the great demand of a single operator, Petrobras, with a learning curve that would drive all of these suppliers to international competitiveness. .jpg "height =" 800 "width =" 1200 "data-src =" https://www.cartacapital.com.br/revista/1010/ideia-de-que-petroleo-e-estrategico-determinara-acao-
CC: tasks badumed by Petrobras after decades of investment in research and training. and trained technicians.Now, with the main investment made and Petrobras deprived of the sole operator status, they enter to explore the meadow Is it legitimate? JSG:
CC: Could explain the last one. JSG: A measure of efficiency is the construction time of platforms and probes. In the beginning, Brazilian shipyards took much longer to build than international shipyards, but in recent times they had approached foreigners in this regard.
CC: What is the real situation of the refineries in Brazil and what references do you think are appropriate to fill the gaps or insufficiencies that you can identify? ] JSG: Brazilian refineries received significant investments under the Lula and Dilma governments, with the aim of improving process flows, increasing their Brazilian heavy oil processing capacity and reducing the sulfur content of the derivatives. Such investments have led the current units to operate at more than 90% capacity and now they operate at less than 70%, with some refineries having about half of their capacity.
The argument that the optimization of refining results can indolence of some processing units, especially those that convert heavy oil into light derivatives, is misleading in situations where the Domestic crude oil production is declining and domestic petroleum product prices are increasing or stabilizing. In this case, the optimization goal should take into account the maximum use of the units already installed.
In the case of the derivative produced with domestic oil, its profitability comes from the difference between market prices and their cost of production in Reais, which includes the domestic crude oil produced here.
CC: Brazil was the destination for half of the US east coast's jet fuel and diesel exports in the first quarter, while domestic refineries operate abnormally high inactivity. In which situations and for which types of derivatives is the import justified? What should have been the attitude of the company? Refining is of strategic importance for Petrobras? JSG: Brazilian imports of gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene come mainly from the United States. The government has decided to increase the number and volume of importers of derivatives, while Petrobras has an unused capacity to create a favorable climate for the sale of refineries.
Reducing Petrobras' presence in refining is a strategy to, on the one hand attract new investors and, on the other hand, to make it a business focused solely on for oil production . In the world of oil, large and most long-term sustainable companies are those integrated from the production well to the retail point of sale.
CC: On the one hand, there are advocates of control by the company of fuel prices to keep inflation at reasonable levels and, on the other hand, those in favor of dollarization of derivatives in the domestic market. Between these extremes, there is a myriad of proposals that range from government grants to budget money, taxation and the variable perception of taxes on imports. How do you see this question? In all major oil-producing countries with the exception of Norway, there is some price stability relative to changes in short-term prices at petrol-importing service stations and, in particular, importers of petroleum products.
Gasoline prices in Norway, Finland and Denmark are the largest in the world today, due to taxes levied on liters sold as a way of discouraging l & # 39; use of cars with spark and compression engines and stimulate the use of alternative and electric fuels and hybrids
CC: How to contain Immediate repayments of did it vary in price in dollars of oil or dollar itself and stretching and therefore easing In the case of Brazil, during the Lula and Dilma period, prices derivatives were adjusted in long-term cycles, in the case of Brazil, taking into account expectations of future changes in the exchange rate, the price of oil, derivatives prices and the Brazilian domestic market. During this period, the shareholders realized the highest profits in the history of Petrobras and the market value of the company reached its historic highs.
CC: You have criticized the stability exchange of an integrated company that works from the well to the mission, seeking to obtain short-term liquidity from the sale of its badets, in order to accelerate the payment of debts and dividends.
JSG: Vertical integration provides long-term protection against cyclical fluctuations in oil prices, since refining margins and derivative prices, despite long-term crude oil prices , do not vary with the same intensity in markets with large refineries and with relevant domestic production. Internationally integrated companies have more profits and greater long-term sustainability.
- such as Gabriel Pbados at Betim, which operated at 90 % of the capacity under Lula and Dilma, are now under 70% (Geraldo Falcão / Petrobras)
CC: Odebrecht negotiates the sale of the control of Braskem, in which he is a partner of Petrobras for the giant Dutch LyondellBasell.The acquisition is expected to give birth to the largest petrochemical company in the world.
long-term, the main oil market, since its use as energy for transportation tends to be reduced by the l 39; use of renewable energy technologies, electric and hybrid glbades.
The use of oil as a material first era for petrochemical products should therefore develop long-term and world's leading petrochemical industry to increase their integration with refining units. The largest new refining projects in the Middle East, as well as in China and India, are extending refining relationships with petrochemical plants.
What Does Brazil Lose By Controlling Braskem? The sale of Braskem means the loss of national control of an industry that will become increasingly important in the industry. Braskem is one of the five largest petrochemical companies in the world and was developing strongly in the United States by deploying units to use relatively cheap natural gas and consolidate as an international player . With its sale, Brazil stands outside this long-term strategic conflict. CC C omo sees the claim that Odebrecht was forced to sell control to Braskem by Lava Jato, who, in addition to punishing the leaders of the Company, which also occurs in the rest of the world in case of innocence, went further and punished the company for contracts with the public sector, which is unheard of in Europe and in the United States in similar situations involving large groups who, after a few weeks or months, are signing contracts again with the state?
JSG: The direct motivations for Odebrecht's sale of his interest in Braskem appear to be related to Lava Jato and, indirectly, to the position of Petrobras, a relevant partner of Odebrecht in Braskem
CC: Petrobras flourished from the capital goods industries and, as you pointed out above, shipbuilding important, among others. In your opinion, should the country and Petrobras reconsider the possibility of strengthening the oil and gas sector through an extensive program involving judicious badociations with foreign equipment manufacturers to revitalize the production chain? [19659062] JSG: I think so. The attempt to create a parapetroleira industry in Brazil involved an anchor company, a large buyer (Petrobras), support and economic development policies that reduced the systemic costs for the industry and the financing conditions for make investments feasible in Brazil. All of this is dismantled by the current government. It will hardly be possible in the short term to resume these activities. But the country can not ignore these long-term opportunities. Pressures for national content policy will come back and changes in current politics will have to take place CC: An increasingly voluminous trend of opinion embodies the anti privatization and denationalization movement -Petrobras, deceived the possibility for the country, given the abundance of renewable sources, to be able to adopt them in the medium term in sufficient quantity to replace oil. Renewable sources of wind, solar and other energy are expected to increase more than primary sources of fossil fuels, natural gas and coal. [1945902] There is however a problem with renewable sources from very small bases and with high growth rates, which will take many years to reach a significant scale. Petrobras is strongly badociated with the production system of an intermediate source that is natural gas, but the current government's policy is to take it out of this sector.
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