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São Paulo, 07 – The economist André Braz, researcher Ibre / FGV and coordinator of the consumer price index (CPI) calculated by the institution, considers the result of the I & # 39; 39, official inflation in June, which reaches 1.26% more than the triple of the previous month (0.40%), a "transient sunburn". The explosion of the IPCA in June reflects a combination of the effects of the strike, the pressure of administered prices and the devaluation of the real. According to his weekly polls to determine the CPI-S, he says that there are signs of decelerating prices. He believes this June rush should dissipate this month. For July, Braz expects inflation to be less than 0.30% and, in the year, can go 4.2%, in the most pessimistic scenario, below 39%. objective of 4.5%.
The June IPCA surprised?
No, it was a high result, 1.26%, but it was already expected. It reflected high exchange rates, the truckers' strike, rising administered prices and seasonal effects such as rising milk prices.
In your opinion, will inflation slow down this month or is the trend going up?
Inflation has already returned.
Even the exchange rate at this level?
The transfer of trade is very limited because we have a very weak economy and a high unemployment rate. Therefore, there is not much breath to convey, except for gasoline, raw materials. But for durable goods, such as electronics, it is more complicated to let cost increases pbad now. There is no demand for the current price, which will mean for a higher price.
Do not worry about this explosion of inflation in June? Our estimate of inflation for the year has of course increased. But it is less than 4.5%, which is the goal. Our provisional figure for inflation this year is 4.2%. The optimistic forecast is about 4%. Already in July we will have an inflation below 0.30%, who knows. In August, inflation will remain very low. It will not be love at first sight in June because of these factors that occurred at the same time. As we do weekly monitoring, prices are already slowing down.
Even with prices administered at a high level in 12 months, do not expect high inflation for the future?
No, because on the other side we have the food that accumulates in the year a very low inflation. This helps to offset these highlighted managed prices. Even if they increase a little in July, like electric power in São Paulo, or there are new pressures on the essence itself, inflation remains below the target.
The General Price Index (PGI) is under pressure. This can not be an indication of a rise in retail inflation
Although PGIs accumulate a stronger variation than the IPCA, they will begin to yield and find the way to IPCA. . They should not slow down as much as the IPCA because they have inflations of other segments that will lose their breath more slowly. But they will slow down because of weak demand and falling exchange rates. The information is from the newspaper
The State of S. Paulo.
(Márcia De Chiara)
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