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The effect of the truckers' strike on inflation is expected to begin to dissipate at the end of the month, with the reversal of rising prices for gasoline and gas cooking, for example, according to experts. In June, inflation, as measured by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), rose 1.26%, the highest rate for the month since 1995, or 2.26%. %. The result exceeded the forecasts of financial institutions consulted by the Central Bank (BC), which forecast a change of 1.15%. In May, the effect of shortages caused by the truckers strike at the end of the month added to the pressures on energy and fuel prices. As a result, the IPCA increased by 0.40%. In June, the acceleration occurred due to the intensification of the effects of the stop on the prices of food and petroleum products and the change in tariff rates.
Márcio Salvato, coordinator of the economics course of the Brazilian Institute of Capital Markets (Ibmec), explained that the "explosion" of inflation in May and June has occurred due to the increased demand for products like gasoline and cooking gas. "There was too much demand because people wanted to store, products like gasoline, cooking gas increased, and it had the effect of changing the cost structure with freight." [19659002] For Salvato, inflation could even be lower than forecast, with gasoline and gas prices returning to normal. "There should be lower prices for products that have had an effect He stressed that there is no risk of losing control of inflation due to the effects of the truckers strike.
[] Inflation
According to the Inflation Report, released in June by British Columbia, despite the staggering effects of the high dollar observed since the end of April and the expected increase in airline tickets in July are expected due to lower inflation rates.This is expected to occur due to the reversal of the effects. the shortage caused by the truckers' strike, the favorable seasonality of food prices and the economic idleness of the economy
For BC, the resumption of activity at a pace more progressive
For this month, the forecasts of financial institutions consulted by the BCB are that the IPCA should be 0.35% and fall to 0.12% in August.
"We hope that by July this effect will begin to dilute.We had this pressure now in June, but in July it should decrease," said Marcio Milan economist of Tendência Consultoria.
Because it is considered a climax, the economist recalls that the risk of non-compliance with the target of inflation is zero. The target is 4.5%, with a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points up or down. "Even with other events such as exchange fees and administrative fees, the risk is zero, the projections continue below the center." Our projection is that the IPCA will be 3.7% this year. year, "said Milan.
(illustrative image Antonio Cruz / Agência Brasil)
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