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At the first session on the Chicago Stock Exchange after the implementation of the 25% tariff on soybeans imported from the United States, the oil futures closed the negotiated day, or lose more than 2%.
The first installments returned home at $ 8.50 a bushel, while September 18 was $ 8.61 and November was $ 8.72.
The heaviest weight on quotations comes from the trade war between the two largest economies in the world, reinforcing a scenario of Chinese demand for US soybeans and, more than that, the speculation about practical effects that this scenario can create from the moment the rates begin to apply.
The important thing is to know now, as the market badyst Eduardo Vanin of Agrinvest Commodities explains, what will be the demand from outside China for turn to American soybeans and their size.
"Who will not buy China in the United States But will this demand be enough to start in the United States?" Vanin asks, at a time when American cultures are in full development in the Corn Belt.
However, Victor Ikeda, a grain badyst with Vanin and Rabobank, estimates that China still needs US soybeans and, even if it costs the country more for the time being, will use the product.
According to a Rabobank projection, during the last quarter of the year, the Asian nation will need nearly 20 million tons of oil, with Brazil being able to supply between 4 and 5 million tons.
"So, if we look further, there will be a need for China on the part of US soybeans and this will encourage a readjustment of the market to levels closer to US $ 9.00 to supply China with 2018, "says Ikeda
On the other hand, the United States sowed more soybeans than maize in 2018/19 for the first time in 35 years, which also worries local farmers." When it started to have a price deterioration in Chicago, the American soy was practically on the ground and there was no way to change the US supply, "says the bank badyst
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And the picture of the climate in the Corn Belt still does not see any threats effectively configured for the 2018/19 harvest There is an intensification of the heat forecast for the coming weeks, but there is still no worry about very serious damage. And this has also been a pressure factor on prices.
"Much of the market 's attention has turned Monday to the temperature shift in the US Midwest and the idea that the strong heat will not reach a very large area of crops that are in pollination in the coming weeks, temperatures will begin to drop and help relieve stress, "says Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale, Inc.
Complete the Day of Technical and Environmental Remediation profit taking after the highs of more than 4% Friday (6), the market is still adjusting to the eve of a new monthly newsletter of supply and demand that the l '39. USDA brings in Thursday.
Prices in Brazil
In Brazil, the highlight of this week was the rise, against the ticket office of the Chicago Stock Exchange, quotations at the 39th. In some southern markets, the gains amounted to 2.74%, x R $ 75.00 per bag, as in Non-Me-Toque / RS.
Good gains were also recorded in the Midwest, as was the case in Brasília, where the soybean bag closed the day with a 4.9% advance at R $ 75.00.
In ports, however, prices declined or remained stable. In Paranaguá, maintenance is R $ 89.50 in availability and R $ 90.00 for March / 19. In Rio Grande, R $ 87.50 on the spot and R $ 88.30 in August, with decreases 1.13% and 1.01%.
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