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LONDON – Boris Johnson, who resigned as UK Foreign Secretary on Monday (9), is known to love the "Churchillian" credentials, seeing in an absurd manner how heir to the great man of state. It is not yet known if his ploy is the beginning of the end for Theresa May, or simply the end of the beginning. What is certain is that the second battle of Brexit has begun.
The prime minister knew Friday that he was taking a significant political risk by convincing his firm to accept a plan hard to swallow for any advocate engaged in Brexit. 19659002] With her closest advisers, she planned what they would do if important ministers left the ship. What if we lose Johnson, and if we lose David Davis? At times, it almost seemed like she was instigating them by allowing her advisers to give them briefings that made fun of them before the strategic meeting.
Mai is still described as cautious and robotic. As they showed the early elections of last year, she can also be a great player. She read the soul of the firm's colleagues and concluded that they were all talking. They did not have the numbers that matched their threats.
But military maneuvers are not the same thing as war and planning never takes into account the momentum created in the bustling Westminster Halls. Now Theresa May has her fight. The resignation of Davis, his secretary of Brexit and his deputy also forced Johnson to leave. And they may not be the last.
Few people will regret the departure of a foreign minister who never seemed to take the job seriously. On Friday, he mumbled on May's policy, but told cabinet members that they should support the prime minister. Now he is gone. Just as when he abandoned David Cameron to support Brexit, he managed to make a seemingly sincere decision look immoral.
It is not clear what the form of this rebellion will be. On the other hand, it will be difficult for them not to follow the logic of their conclusions. Davis insists that he has no interest in propelling May further; Johnson may be less benevolent. His resignation letter was lavish on the rhetoric of self-horror, but particularly poor on the fine words to the prime minister.
They may find the show provocative enough to put Theresa May back on the line, but the impetus for a leadership challenge may now be irreversible. Supporters of the line know that they may not have a number to remove Mai, but now they should realize that she will not give them the Brexit they want.
A benevolent interpretation of the events shows that the Brexiters are committed to respecting the decades principles. The concessions proposals drafted at the official May retreat, Friday, for all practical purposes, leave the UK as a follower of the rules on trade in goods and at least submit to the decisions of the European Court. It was too much and simply a starting point. Everyone knows that the European Union will push for more concessions.
A less generous point of view will be that the Brexiters never wanted to have their own process, at least because they have never had a serious plan to apply it. Complex issues have been dispensed from careless statements of self-confidence. Everything was "Project Fear"; Brussels would blink first. Their plan was the political equivalent of singing "the return of football".
Tactically, it made sense to avoid defining their point of view on Brexit during the plebiscite, but they continued on this path, describing it only in terms of what it is not.
For months, Theresa May took advantage of this ambiguity to get her cabinet to adopt a more realistic Brexit that could protect jobs and investments, as the House leader pointed out. Opponent Jeremy Corby was "reduced to a secondary conspiracy" by the Brexiters.
But finally, she knew that she should face them. And it almost worked. She divided the Brexiters of her government. Some, like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab, adhered to their plan, perhaps because they saw that securing Brexit meant keeping things under control.
Most importantly, the Prime Minister was ready to put the party's concerns ahead. Unfortunately, it is difficult to see the European Union lose so much time on May's plan when things are so unstable.
Theresa May was right to force the question. Unfortunately, it took him too long to do it. Perhaps we can blame the defeat in the early elections, which have darkened his authority, but it would have taken his party 18 months to conduct the internal war for which he seems to move and then follow the European negotiations in a coherent manner [19659002] In addition, months after the release date, the European Union must continue to watch while conservatives, in an indulgent way, spend more time arguing among themselves. Even so, Mai has no choice but to fight for her plan. It will be a close fight, but the country demands that the second Brexit battle wins a clear victory.
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