The 7 events that will guide the market next week
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SÃO PAULO – After successive renewals of the Ibovespa maxims last week, investors will follow in the coming days the publication of important indicators, especially in the United States. United, and the conduct of the Summit of the leaders of the G-20 which brings together the largest economies in the world, Friday, 30 and Saturday 1 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
The meeting announces it as the most important event of the year and should set the tone for 2019. The global strategist of XP Investimentos, Alberto Bernal, is the record of it. He expects a "ceasefire" in the trade dispute between China and the United States.
Americans and Chinese have been waging war since July, after the mutual imposition of $ 1 billion surtaxes.
According to the strategist, this truce would occur when Trump would maintain tariffs at current levels in exchange for the US commitment. China needs to move trade negotiations forward faster with indications of goodwill. "Any alternative scenario would, in our opinion, be negative, leading to an escalation of trade tensions and a serious risk to global growth," said Bernal.
The eventual decline in the temperature of the trade war may complement another signal given by the United States, also positive for risky badets. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) account, released Thursday (29), confirmed the sweeter tone of the monetary authority in the face of the need to raise interest rates in 2019.
Si this signal is accompanied by the "cease-fire" scheduled for the weekend, Bernal thinks that the trigger will be given for the recovery of markets. In the paper, leaders stress that the trajectory of interest is undefined and will depend on economic data, which has recently indicated a lower need for disbursements.
Looking for additional clues to the direction taken in the United States, investors will closely follow the disclosure of data from North American labor market . On Wednesday (5) will be known the figures of the ADP, indicator that measures the number of non-rural workers currently employed. The data is a kind of preview of the monthly labor market report, which will be released Friday (7).
According to Rosenberg Associados estimates, the US economy should have maintained the unemployment rate at 3.7% in November – the lowest level in nearly five decades. The pace of job creation continues with an average of 200,000 over 12 months. Rosenberg estimates that it created 205,000 jobs in November, up from 250,000 in October
. Wage inflation was below the level observed before the 2008 crisis, despite the acceleration seen in recent months. should show an increase of 0.3% in value per hour worked compared to 0.2% the previous month.
On the national scene, investors will keep an eye on the last names of Jair Bolsonaro's team highlighting the Ministry of the Environment. Among the indicators, it should be noted the production industrial of October, Monday (3), and production of vehicles in November, published Thursday (6) by Anfavea ] IPCA (broad national consumer price index), for the month of November will be released on Friday (7) and is expected to show a 0.13% deflation over the month and cumulative inflation of 4.13% last 12 months.
Finally, the market is still waiting for new information concerning the approval of the expensive project which could bring 60 billion rubles to the government, and was stalled
technical difficulties in making part of the resources collected available to States and municipalities.
This question was on the agenda of the Senate this week, but it was not appreciated due to lack of consensus. around the sharing of royalties from the expensive disposal of pre-salt with states and municipalities. On Wednesday, the Senate Speaker, Eunicio Oliveira (MDB-CE), said that he would not put the question because there was no agreement between the members of the Senate. 39 economic team of the current government and President-elect Jair Bolsonaro.
The head of government in the Senate, Romero Jucá (MDB-RR), said the vote should only be held from Tuesday (4). "Until then, we have continued to build a technical solution for the transfer of resources to states and municipalities," he wrote on his Twitter
