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LONDON – Prime Minister Theresa May managed to dodge the rebellion within her own party, but she only had more time. The vote of confidence granted to the British sovereign by 200 of the 317 conservative parliamentarians does not put an end to the crisis in the United Kingdom. May could not be the subject of a new motion for at least a year and had vowed not to be a candidate in the forthcoming elections, thus soothing the discontent of his supporters during the election. a new dramatic night in Westminster. However, there is no guarantee that he will get approval in Parliament of the agreement that determines the basis for the UK's exit from the European Union (EU). Both his struggle for political survival and the slow novel Brexit continue.
The country has an uncertain road, with several possible departures. None of them guarantees a stable situation for the prime minister in her race against time: there are only 14 weeks left until March 29, when the United Kingdom leaves the European bloc. "I'm always ready to finish my job," May told Downing Street. The problem is that your mission seems impossible.
The Conservative Party, responsible for the plebiscite that approved Brexit in 2016, is plunged into a civil war with no cease-fire in sight. On one side, there are advocates of a "hard" Brexit who accuse him of having made too many concessions to Brussels by proposing a customs union during the negotiation of the "trade unions". a definitive trade agreement, thereby preventing the reinstatement of a controlled border between Northern Ireland. and the Republic of Ireland. On the other hand, the moderate wing, which is not sure either that the agreement is good, adds to the opponents declared breaking with the EU . Low, May has no way to please everyone in a party in identity crisis.
Its longevity may be unsustainable if it becomes apparent that it will not be able to approve the agreement in Parliament in the next few days or weeks. She returns to Brussels on Thursday to continue negotiating the Irish border issue. The special arrangement that keeps Northern Ireland under EU rules, called the "safety net", is not accepted by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Without this little bench, May does not have a majority. New crises are inevitable. This is the most complicated challenge a British leader has ever faced in peacetime.
Radical Scenarios
While the government party is trying to reach consensus on the possible choice of its new commander – there are several candidates, but none of them is the favorite – the opposition is gaining ground. The choice of a new prime minister is expected by 2022, but few political badysts believe that the prime minister will be able to stay in place until that date. It depends on the type of agreement that it can draw from the European Union, which has already declared in turn that it has nothing else to offer. Union leader Jeremy Corbyn took advantage of the bad moment that his rival faces demanded that she stop running and submit the agreement to the ballot before Christmas. May canceled the vote last Monday because he knew he was going to lose. Nothing indicates that you have found a solution.
The most radical scenario, namely an exit from the European bloc without any agreement, is not excluded. A second plebiscite does not do it either, as it is becoming more and more obvious that there is no way to achieve a Brexit imagined by politicians who have pleaded for a divorce with the law. EU. They promised that the United Kingdom would regain control of its laws and its borders without harming its economy. For the moment, no one seemed to be able to solve this equation.
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