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The week was intense and volatile for soybean prices on the international market and the negative balance for stock prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange. Oil futures ended the session Friday (14) with a loss of more than 6 points between major salaries and, in the weekly balance, a loss of 1.75% in January, a value of USD 9.00 per bushel , while the month of May is down 1.49% to close at $ 9.26.
In recent days, the trade war between China and the United States has remained in the spotlight of the market and the news has been reported that China has again bought soybeans in the United States. The state-owned company, Sinograin, has purchased just over 1 million tonnes and the total purchase could, according to speculation, reach 5 million tonnes.
These early purchases, however, thwarted traders, who had already negotiated small purchases like this – given the signals from Washington and Beijing – and whose price effects were limited. Thus, after reaching their best levels in the last six months, prices have corrected some gains to closing at these levels.
The purchases only signaled that China and the United States would finally be on the verge of signing an agreement and providing the market with more concrete information on the consensus they would reach. And it depends, explains market badyst Matheus Pereira of ARC Mercosul, of a face-to-face meeting between the two presidents.
"We have to wait for a new meeting to be held early in 2019 in Washington, where a more concrete and concrete scenario may occur where this war or conciliation may occur," said Pereira.
The market is therefore considering the future of US tariffs on soybeans and their impact on the dynamics of world soybean trade. It is a fact that, until the end of this episode, the global final stocks of soybeans have increased considerably, as ARC badyst Cristiano Palavro explains, while maintaining CBOT quoted prices under pressure. .
"Since May, the USDA has increased global inventories by 30 million tons.We face a fundamental scenario of pressure on prices.Therefore, increases that could result from a decline rates might not be as high, "says the executive.
Price in Brazil
At this rate and with these data, allied with the proximity of the arrival of the new crop of Brazil and all of South America, prices and prices of soybeans in the national market they also feel greater pressure and are already dropping significantly. If buyers do not have a big appetite for oil at the moment, sellers also remain withdrawn and avoid new operations.
On Friday only, the premiums offered for soybeans in the port of Paraguá have lost more than 20% and have varied between major delivery positions between 30 and 50 cents compared to prices observed on the Chicago Stock Exchange. .
Given this situation and the current volatility of the dollar, with investors dividing between the international scene and the beginning of the new Brazilian government, the marketing of the 2018/19 harvest has already entered the rhythm of the end of the year. 39, year, with even more caution from the soya. According to badysts and consultants, their position is correct and the direction is that they are attentive to the occasional opportunities that may arise from that moment.
In the port of Rio Grande, this week again, references to articles available and closed on January 19 were closed at $ 80.50 per bag and a cumulative minimum of 2.19%.
E Palavro alert. "The 2019 scenario is a complex and differentiated scenario, and with these changes of government, the trade war has more points of conflict than usual, so protection is the key to that strategy. pbad 2019 with good no problem for the economic activity of the producer and buyers of cereals ".
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