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(Marcelo Camargo / Agência Brasil)
SÃO PAULO – The week begins cautiously for major world indices after the sharp decline last week as the market looks ahead to the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Here, B3 expires on stock options and announces Ibovespa's second glimpse, while it offers up to $ 1 billion online at the exchange rate after the dollar has closed above R $ 3.91 in the sixth. The reform agenda of the next government is also on the agenda. Here is what to watch on Monday (17) and the week:
1. Global Equity
The session focuses on the stability of European stock markets and future US indices, in a cautious mood during the week in which the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates. Investors will watch for signs of slowing interest rate hikes next year.
In Asia, equity markets closed higher and posted moderate gains on Monday, partially offsetting the sharp decline observed in the previous trading session, when weak indicators in China and the euro zone revived worries about the global economic slowdown and the collapse of the global stock markets, but that the markets also have the eye on the Fed.
Among the currencies, the Mexican peso strengthens after the new sworn president Andrés Manuel López Obrador promised a budget surplus in 2019.
On the commodity market, oil operates regularly after alternating ups and downs. down strong the two previous days. most metals return to London.
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Check the market performance, according to the 8:10 (GMT) quote:
* S & P 500 Futures (US) + 0.02%
* Dow Jones Futuro (US) (FTSE (UK) -Uni) -0.38%
* CAC-40)
* Nasdaq Futuro (United States) + 0.13%
* DAX (Germany) -0.12% (France) -0 , 55%
* FTSE MIB (Italy) -0.27%
* Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.03% (closed)
* Shanghai (China) +0 * Crude Oil + 0 , 02%, at US $ 60.29 per barrel
* WTI Oil +0 (In the last 24 hours)
* Futures (in the last 24 hours)
* Bitcoins 3,286 , 16 USD + 0.28%
R $ 12,749-0.23% iron ore traded on the Chinese stock exchange in Dalian + 1.56%, to 488.50 yuan (in the last 24 hours)
2. National Agenda
On the National Calendar, Attention to IBC-Br (Economic Activity Index of the Central Bank) in October, Monday (17), as Economists of GO Associados Expect him to withdraw 0.15%, following the falls of the industry and trade. In addition, the Copom minutes (Tuesday) and the quarterly report on inflation [ (Thursday). Both should be complementary as they show the Central Bank's view of the Brazilian scenario. After keeping the Selic at 6.50% last week, the market is now trying to predict when and if we will have a cycle of great interest.
Finally, the week will still be IPCA -15 (Extended Consumer Price Index – 15) on Friday, December 21, with a GO Associates variation projection of 0.09 %, bringing accumulated data from 12 months to 4.12%. It should be noted that British Columbia will hold an active week and has announced line bids of up to $ 1 billion US during the second of the exchange. Click here and check out the full agenda of the indicators.
3. United States Budget which took on importance in the face of President Donald Trump's threats to paralyze the country's government if Congress does not approve $ 5 (19659007) in the United States United also, the last meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of 2018, where the market expects a further rise in interest. The meeting will also feature a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and a successful economic projection as investors look for signs of monetary policy next year.
4. New Politics
The Congress closes on Tuesday (18), the day of the vote on the 2019 budget. The Joint Committee of the Congress unanimously approved a budget for the deficit of the public sector
consolidated at 132 billion rand. From now on, the approval of the Congress is a prerequisite for the beginning of the parliamentary holidays. In the House, members of Parliament stop on December 22 and return on February 2. In the Senate, holidays are scheduled from December 23 to February 1.
Next year, members of the team of the future Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, declared that his priority in the last section of the transition would be to refine the discourse on the reform of social security, said Folha. They want to define not only the bill that will be introduced by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), but also the strategy that will be used to get congressional approval. The idea is that the proposal is ready by the beginning of the new legislature in February. According to the O Globo newspaper, the transition team is still studying a tax reform proposal.
The presidential election is also on the agenda. According to Folha, without the support of Bolsonaro, Paulo Guedes would have already started working for the re-election of Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ). According to this publication, Guedes fears that his proposal for social security reform will not advance to the National Congress and asked MEPs to talk with Maia, who has already said that he converges with this agenda.
This weekend, Bolsonaro used Twitter. Say that together, together with future ministers of Mines, Energy and Agriculture, badyzes the potential exploitation of potbadium, calcium and magnesium reserves in order to reduce dependence on the imported raw material for the production of fertilizer.
5. Business Information
BNDES postponed the Ceal, Eletrobras auction from December 19 to 28, with a new document delivery date on the 27th. Equatorial obtains an installation license for As for the transmission, the CSN projects, Ebitda, went from about 7 billion rubles to 2019, while Gol informs that B3 decided not to allow the company to migrate to Novo Mercado.
(with Agência Estado and Bloomberg)
consolidated at 132 billion rand. From now on, the approval of the Congress is a prerequisite for the beginning of the parliamentary holidays. In the House, members of Parliament stop on December 22 and return on February 2. In the Senate, holidays are scheduled from December 23 to February 1.
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