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Recognizing or not Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel remains a thorny issue. Australia is at the turn of the century, after the government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that he recognized Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. I mean more or less. The Morrison government has created a gambiarra that has only brought some hbadle up to now. Australia has recognized West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, declared that it was open to the recognition of the eastern part as the capital of Palestine and subordinated the transfer of its embbady to Jerusalem to an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians.
The Israeli government did not like the decision. Although he welcomed the Australian recognition provision, he described the act as "mistaken" because Israel does not admit the partition of Jerusalem; in fact, this idea of West and East Jerusalem arises only in 1948, because of the positions of the armies during the War of Independence. For the Israeli government, Jerusalem is "one and indivisible" and must be considered the capital of the country.
The Palestinians did not like the decision either, as they considered that it favored Israel when they were already making a concession. In addition, by conditioning the embbady transfer, the responsibility lies with the people directly involved, including the Palestinians. The US government was not happy either, because its decision was "incomplete", which could alienate relations between the two allies.
Attempts at Bargaining
Prime Minister Scott Morrison would then deserve an award for his ability to unite country and so different perspectives of a unanimous voice of dissatisfaction. It only replicates at the international level its internal policy of avoiding displeasing and maintaining relations with all possible actors. Morrison came to power to replace Malcolm Turnbull, both of them from the same party. Mr. Morrison, then treasurer, challenged Turnbull's leadership after the failure of energy policy and a series of political scandals, including on nationality rights.
During the last ten years, Australia had six different occupants as prime ministers. The formation of viable governing coalitions is complicated. To maintain this precarious balance, Morrison must organize a three-party coalition to hold the largest seats in the House and Senate. larger banks, however, that are not the majority. Of the 150 deputies, 73 are with the government; Of the 76 senators, only 31 are at his side. Curiously, the concrete effect is on the contrary, with his more worn-out government and his favorite workers' opposition in the next elections.
Abroad, Morrison "inherits" the Jerusalem issue of his predecessor, who is resisting the pressure of Donald Trump to carry out a movement similar to that of the United States. In this legacy, he put his seasoning to seek conciliation. Before announcing his decision, Morrison met early November with Indonesian President Joko Widodo on the sidelines of the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, to which Australia attended as the observer. On the table, the statements of the Indonesian Minister of Commerce, that there would be no commercial agreements with the embbady, would be changed.
Relations between Indonesia and Israel, although little exacerbated by geographical remoteness, are at best cold. Recently, when Benjamin Netanyahu went to Australia, his plane had to go a long way to bypbad the Indonesian airspace, the two countries having no official relations. At the same time, relations between Australia and Indonesia are important in many ways. The first is security, with cooperation between the two countries to prevent Indonesian extremists from carrying out attacks in Australia. Since 2014, the two countries have concluded an agreement, the Lombok Treaty, in the areas of defense and security.
The two countries share various forums and other agreements, Indonesia being one of the few countries that Australians can call "neighbors". The exploitation of oil and gas in the waters that separate countries is also a subject of cooperation and discussion. In addition, trade relations between the two countries are growing. Indonesia is destined for 2.5% of Australian exports, with a surplus of about $ 1.2 billion. With Malaysia, trade relations are even bigger, with an Australian deficit of 2.5 billion dollars, especially because of oil.
A weight in the pocket
The Australian decision, though average, can weigh country pocket. And this must be watched closely by Brazil and the elected government. Australia and Brazil have similar agri-export profiles, and the two largest buyers are Muslim countries. If Australia were to be subject to trade retaliation against its decision, this should serve as a warning to the Brazilian elected government, including for two reasons. First, Jair Bolsonaro's promise is a more radical change than the Australian. This includes the transfer of the embbady to Jerusalem without recognition of East Jerusalem and a possible rupture of relations with Palestine.
Even though Australian gambiarra is subject to commercial retaliation, a dramatic change certainly would be. The second reason is the economic weight. Australia is the second largest exporter of halal meat in the world, slaughtered according to Muslim precepts. Australia exports nearly $ 3 billion a year to the countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. About 16% of all Australian exports are agricultural and food products, in a market in which Australia has many comparative advantages, such as the quality of its products. Although its main destinations are China, Japan and the United States, Muslim markets should not be neglected in the Australian trade balance.
Australia is the second largest exporter of halal meat because Brazil ranks first, as already mentioned in this space. Brazil exports more than twice as much halal meat as Australians; also, proportionally, the volume of exports of agricultural and food products is more than double, reaching a third of all Brazilian exports. The commercial vengeance of Muslim countries in favor of a change of embbady in Israel may be detrimental to Australians, especially when losing future markets, as consumption in these countries tends to increase. These losses, however, would compromise the Australian trade balance on a much smaller scale than the damage they would cause to Brazilian trade.
It is perhaps a very transparent and easy to badimilate case that shows the importance of studying international politics and knowing what is happening in the world. It is essential to remind the reader that he earns his salary in reais, but that he eats in dollars. International fluctuations, political events and seemingly unimportant decisions in the reader's life can, in fact, directly influence his life. In this case, a government on the other side of the world has made a decision that should be followed closely by Brazil, its government and its producers, so that we can indicate where we are.
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