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In a year marked by the presidential election and turbulence in the foreign market, the Brazilian stock market ends the year 2018 with an appreciation of 15%, a performance far superior to that of the main world indices and comparable to emerging couples.
The Brazilian stock market has taken off after the external turbulence caused by electoral optimism and prospects for recovery of the Brazilian economy after years of recession, according to badysts. They predict another stock market peak in 2019 – according to Ibovespa estimates, between 112,000 and 150,000 points, depending on the optimism of the badyst.
The confirmation of the scenario will, however, depend on the approval of the reforms, particularly the
Ibovespa, which groups the most traded shares, jumped from 76,000 to 87,000 points over the course of the year. year, but fell below the historic high reached just after the election of Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), which will take office on Tuesday 1.
Closed on Friday, last exchange of the year, listed at 87,887 points, up 2.83%.
At the height of the year, the index found close to 90,000 points, but could not exceed that level.
"The stock market has reached 90,000 points, about 5% above the current threshold." I think in Brazil, the investment thesis was correct, "says Victor Candido, of the Guide. Corretora, about the top of the exchange The house predicted that Ibovespa would end the year at around 95,000 points, which has not been confirmed.
The escalation of the Brazilian stock market and the inadequacy of the external scenario were evident from October. The Bolsheviks, who had not made any concrete proposals and did not participate in the debate because the stab wounds they had suffered during the campaign, won the candidate 's votes in opposition to the petty politics Fernando Haddad and the promises of a liberal and reformist program in the economy, symbolized by the Indication of Paulo Guedes as Minister of the Economy.
In addition to Macroeconomic optimism, the market enshrined in the prices of the companies' best results, said Ronaldo Patah, strategist at the UBS bank. "The exchange began to produce results with corporate earnings growth, and despite weak economic growth, companies performed very well because, after years of no growth, they eliminated spending and recorded productivity gains. "
The upward movement was, however, driven by local investors, while
B3 data show that foreign investors withdrew more than 11 billion rubles from the stock market during the year, a clear flow in October
. predicts a more pronounced slowdown in the global economy, fueled by the fear of a worsening trade dispute between the United States and China.
Oil has fallen more than 40% since, and US stock markets are heading towards the bear market. market jargon that indicates a drop of more than 20% after a recent high.
"The US stock market has reached its highest level in 10 years, this 20% correction the period of September is also a consequence of the very strong appreciation accumulated," said Patah.
To the already troubled scenario, a Fed position (Federal Reserve) somewhat empathetic at the end of the year December. Analysts were largely expecting the decision to raise interest rates at the last meeting of the year, as they wanted to give the Fed the indication that it could change the direction of the summits should the scenario get worse. outside.
After the turbulence of investors. caused by the Fed throughout the year. The process began in May, when the central bank announced an acceleration of the pace of rising interest rates in the United States.
Since then, emerging currencies have begun to depreciate, which explains in part the rise of the dollar from R $ 3. 30, at the beginning of the year, at the current rate of R $ 3.90. When interest rates rise in the United States, investors tend to buy back funds invested in emerging markets to invest in US debt securities considered safer.
] The effect is widespread among emerging countries: on a basket of 24 currencies, the dollar is appreciated on 22 and closed the fiscal year virtually steadily on 2 others. The real is the fourth most affected country, behind the Argentine peso, the Turkish lira and the Russian ruble.
The Central Bank intervenes on the market to contain the movements more clear, more expressive actions in June and now at the end of the month. This year reflects the exit of investors from the stock market and the traditional movement of sending profits from multinationals to headquarters abroad.
British Columbia, however, refuses to use interest rates to avoid an outflow of resources. The Selic has fallen to 6.5% a year, at the lowest level of history and at a level deemed capable of stimulating the economy, which is still growing very shyly.
Even for next year, where optimism prevails in the market. Interest rates are expected to continue to rise in late 2019, confirming the most sustainable cycle of low interest rates in the economy.
Selic's declining participation rates have hurt fixed income investments of the year, frightening investors up to now accustomed to big gains in low-risk applications. Inflation at equally low levels – it should close the year at 3.70%, below the target of 4.5% – has, however, helped to ensure real gains in applications. distributed to all investor profiles.
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