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Former finance minister, Delfim Netto, sees with "hope" the government of the elected president, Jair Bolsonaro, and badesses that the main mission of the new economic team is to release Brazil "moorings" so to accelerate growth.
"It is necessary to free Brazil a little from moorings to which it has been subjected by excessive control, regulation," he said in an interview granted to G1 for the series "What to expect from the economy in 2019" .
In the evaluation of Delfim – one of the leading names in the economy under the military regime -, Brazil lost its ability to grow and the next economic team, led by Paulo Guedes , has "good chances to succeed". "I say this: we can not judge the Bolsonaro government before the investiture.We must judge the government by the end of December 31, 2022." G1 published in the last days of the year a series of interviews to discuss the economic context of Brazil in 2019.
After the main excerpts from the interview.
As Mr. evaluates the economy?
Bolsonaro will receive an economy in a much better condition than Temer's, Temer faced a disaster of Homeric proportions, not only u tax side, but also public accounting. On the economic front, I think the government was a very good thing. He is surrounded by the best professionals in Brazil and has joined a group of people from the Civil House with a great knowledge of microeconomics. And finally, he completed all this with a very neat central bank. Temer provides an organized government.
And now, what to expect with the new economic team?
In my opinion, Guedes (Paulo Guedes, future Minister of Economy) had intelligence, humility and objectivity, as he kept the system running, high quality on the farm. This will change the Central Bank, but with a president of excellent DNA (Roberto Neto Campos, grandson of the liberal economist Roberto Campos).
And the expectation of the performance of the economy?
I see with a lot of hope. Guedes' proposal is a great experience. It is necessary to free Brazil a little from the moorings to which it has been subjected by excessive control and regulation. I think he has a good chance and all these early judgments contain a misconception or, at least, have a bias. There is no reason to imagine that the system that he has put in place is not working. On the contrary. I think it is important for him to break with this case of the same kind, that of the last 20 years.
Over the last 20 years, we have achieved important things: we achieved inflation (stability), we pbaded a law of financial responsibility, but no one obeys, n? ;is this not?
How to solve the tax problem?
The tax situation will only be corrected if the social security reform is implemented. In my opinion, they (members of the new government) should have taken advantage of Temer's offer to approve the reform already well advanced in Congress. Whatever it is, I think the following: it is necessary to give a vote of confidence to the administration of Bolsonaro and Paulo Guedes. It's an experience. They threaten Brazil to succeed.
Why are you? is he so optimistic about the new government?
Because the scheme set up by Paulo Guedes has a unity of thought and that he has all the tools. Paul is obviously a competent economist. I am therefore hopeful that it will work or that it will work. Now, of course, there are many difficulties, especially in relations with Congress, but I think that it will be successful in the field of social protection. The government can not do any reform, can not do something sweet. It does not solve. He will at least face something that remains of the discussion on Temer.
This is the proposal of the Pension of Fear for more?
I ach who should not be more. That's not enough, but it's satisfying. But what I think is this: the company has created a favorable expectation for the Bolsonaro government. It was approved with 55% of the votes and with a 70% approval of the company. That is to say, the Bolsonaro has been given the power to legitimately break this case over the same as Brazil's 20-year control.
And how should negotiations with Congress take place?
We will see all this when the government begins to exercise its functions. But first, it depends very much on the position of the president, not on the part of his party, the people who turn to him, not to participate in congressional elections. The fact that the executive intervenes in congressional elections always ends very badly. There is a good candidate, Rodrigo (Rodrigo Maia, current president of the Chamber of Deputies). I think it's setting up a reasonable situation to win the elections. The advantage of Rodrigo is that he thinks in the same way that the government proposes. It's a liberal.
And does Congress have a way to cooperate?
The Congress has all the conditions to cooperate. In addition, since the tax position of the states and 40% of the municipalities is devastating, I think the states will provide support. That is to say that governors must lobby congress benches for them to vote for social security.
And if the agenda did not work?
If this agenda did not work, it would continue more or less. And we already know that it does not work. We must understand this: Brazil must get rid of these links, the country has lost its capacity for growth. There will be no solution for Brazil without new growth.
What are the other things to do for the country?
It depends on two things: investment and exports. Today, investments can only be made by the private sector because the public sector is not subject to any conditions. Today, the state is an anthropophagous state. He exists for himself. When Brazil increased, the gross tax burden rose to 25 percent of GDP and the state invested 5 percent. Today, the gross tax burden is 34% and the nominal deficit is 6%. The state appropriates 40% of the national income and invests 1%. I insist: Brazil is underdeveloped. In the last 70 years, in the first 35 years, Brazil has grown faster than the world. Over the past 35 years, its growth has been below that of the world.
Brazil has lost its investment capacity and, with the state having no recourse, it must take advantage of all these programs that Temer is leaving. Temer leaves a vast program of projects that can be carried out with the contribution of the public sector.
Some points in the new government's agenda are rather unpopular, such as the revision of social protection schemes and the modification of the minimum wage rule. Is it possible to play on the agenda and ensure popular support?
He (Bolsonaro) will have to spend the popular support. Things are very interesting. If you look at Temer's approval for general surveys, it is approved at around 8% and bad at 75%. XP Investimentos has just conducted a survey of 130 Brazilian businessmen and some foreigners. This gives exactly the opposite: he approves 78%. That is, the company is short-term.
What does this indicate?
That's why you have to use the capital you accumulated when you have it. The elector must understand the following: he has conferred on Bolsonaro the legitimate power to change the It should be pointed out that the social security reform will not reach anyone who earns two salaries. They are already retiring at age 65. Pension reform will lead to very serious internal inequalities.
We must show this to society and show how, in reality, the most privileged clbades have developed the theory that they defend the least favored clbades in social security reform. But not. They defend their interests. Incidentally, it must be recognized that the Temer government has failed to pbad on to society the injustices inherent in public pensions. That's what took the support of the mbad.
million. I comment on the importance of exports for growth, but how should the external scenario behave?
I have the impression that external expectations are deteriorating, I have the impression that the world will reduce its growth. That's what you expect. This shows that there will be no strong push for exports. In other words, it increases the responsibility for internal investments, the responsibility to organize the state more quickly to save, and the responsibility to put in place the appropriate legal safeguards, as well as smart bids to attract the private sector towards investment.
is optimistic for the next 4 years?
From the point of view of the nation, four years are nothing, 2022 is tomorrow. I say this: we can not judge the Bolsonaro government before the inauguration. We must judge the government when it ends on December 31, 2022.
Have you found the level of debate in the campaign?
There was no debate, no campaign in any campaign. Campaigns are disappointments. And the more fraud there is, the more separation there is. In the event that the discussion actually took place in social media, the trend is simply to form two blocks. All who think in one way go in one way, everyone who thinks the opposite goes from one to another. There is no interlocution between them
. The political system that was there prepared an electoral law to his advantage, concentrating all the powers on him, producing all the possible advantages and resulting in the opposite: the citizen was for the first time time he discovered that his vote counts. He understood how? He discovered on social media that he and his teammates can change. And this power does not obey any control of the state. In other words, it may have been the first democratic election, with all its problems due to the lack of program discussion. In the background, in the background, it was a choice whose main vector was antipotism.
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