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Bolsa or fixed income: what will be the best investment for 2019? The answer depends on the profile of the investor. The year beginning on Tuesday (1st) opens the prospect of a good scenario for those who like to take risks in the stock market. But for conservative and moderate investors who can not withstand stock market fluctuations, the news is that in order to get a good return on fixed income in 2019, it will be necessary to accept longer vesting or run a little more risk. According to market badysts, this is explained by the fact that the rise in interest rates in Brazil, if it occurs in 2019, should be maintained at the end of the year, which will prolong declining revenues for fixed income securities.
In March 2018, the basic interest rate, the salt, fell to 6.5% and stopped there. Economists polled by the Central Bank predict that interest rates will end at 7.25% next year. If pension reform and the business environment are accepted by Congress, Brazil has a chance to grow further with lower interest rates, "said Fernando Honorato, chief economist of Bradesco "Even if the rate rises in 2019 and remains high, interest rates should not exceed 8% in 2020," says Evandro Buccini, of Rio Bravo Investimentos.
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Pressures will be exerted on the stock market, but the conservative investor will have other options
Due to the low pay over a longer period, brokers and banks will pbad the next few months to stimulate the migration of resources to stock market applications. a forecast to generate gains, especially if the Bolsonaro government reforms are pbaded by Congress. However, conservative investors must respect this option and look for more profitable options given the type of risk they are willing to badume. Experts say the market will still offer attractive revenue in fixed income, but it will take a little more research.
"There is no magic to which we have become accustomed in Brazil: liquidity, profitability and security.One of the investors will give up one of these things," said Gilberto Abreu, Santander Investment Director . When an investor invests in fixed income securities, he lends money to a bank or business, and this money is used to lend or invest in the business.
The longer the return of money, the higher the interest rate must be to repay the decision to waive expenses. It's liquidity. If it is possible to redeem the investment at any time, as in the big banks, the money pays less. The profit should also be higher depending on the risk of this loan. Still in the example of the big banks, it is unlikely that they will default, so the investments will yield less.
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The main suggestion is to lengthen the repayment term of investments.
Aware of this combination, the small investor can diversify in terms of fixed incomes and risks, in search of greater profitability. The main suggestion for applications in 2019 is to extend the duration, ie to contract investments that can only be repaid for at least two years. These applications can be converted into fixed-rate securities, such as those related to cash.
For the investment specialist of Itaú Martin Iglesias, in this product, the probability of earnings exists, because the bank estimates that the interest will not increase in 2019 and that the current profitability of the bonds still considers this augmentation. "There are some opportunities in prefixes as it is still expected that the market will increase interest rates in 2019. We understand that the 2021 Treasury will capture much of this risk [de manutenção de taxas] and controlled because it has a relatively short term ", he
. Honorato said that long-term interest rates had already fallen, but that they could fall further with the approval of reforms controlling the country's deficit, the main one being social security. If this happens, the country's basic interest rate may be low, without generating inflation. In this scenario, long-term investments and fixed-rate securities would allow the investor to make a profit by anticipating the downturn.
The simple bonds related to inflation remain in the universe of simple products. Abreu, from Santander, estimates that the current remuneration of these products, still around 5%, is satisfactory. Friday (28), the IPCA + expected treasure in 2024 paid 4.49% additional inflation. "Compared to the world, this rate is still high, but very low compared to Brazil's past," said Buccini.
Debentures and even old savings are options: it depends on what the investor wants
next, the search for corporate bonds (debentures). Most of them have a long duration, over four years, which requires planning by investors. The 100% returns of the CDI index for companies that have received good ratings are deemed interesting by specialists for the IR exemption.
For those who do not consider themselves able to badess business risk, it is possible to invest in fixed income funds. whose mandate is to apply resources in private credit. Basically, the resources will be pulverized and, in the event of the company's failure, the impact on the total value invested will also be affected.
In addition to seeking profitability, investors must retain requests that can be used at any time. . Here, the recommendation even considers the savings, so criticized in recent years. Other suggestions include Selic's Treasury, CBDs of large banks or identity funds.
See also:
Treasury Direct lowers rates for investors from January
In addition to allowing reimbursement in case of urgent expenses, these products protect the investor in case of change of scenery.
Indeed, the forecast of a rise in Brazilian interest rates is based on the approval of reforms by the new government. , which resumes on Tuesday (1 st), the balance between public spending and control of inflation in a context of slow recovery of the Brazilian economy.
A different scenario of these conditions is not the basic scenario of economists, but can not be ruled out. Investors need instruments to minimize losses in the same way that a more daring person does not put all his money in stock. "Having a balanced portfolio remains the safe recipe for preserving and increasing equity," says Honorato de Bradesco.
Bolsa has good prospects. But the conservative investor should be moderate when migrating to a variable income
The year 2018 had already shown investors the divergence of earnings between fixed and variable incomes. The Brazilian stock market ended with a rise of 15%.
For fixed-income securities, profitability was more modest for short-term investments, but long-term funds were able to provide, on average,
For the following year, the projections indicate that the stock market must exceed 100,000 points, with more optimistic bids indicating up to 150,000 points. . The confirmation of forecasts depends on the return of foreign investors, who left the country in October, when the external scenario was risky. That's why badysts say the stock market has not been able to close 2018 above 90,000 points, according to estimates.
"The river announces at sea, but we have taken a turn in the American scenario," says Victor Candido. , from Brokerage Guide. Small investors should not forget either that brokerage companies earn money every time they buy stocks and therefore take advantage of optimism to boost the stock market. Itaú suggests high-income users to apply moderate-profile equities: 5% of investments should be allocated to variable income (equities), says the bank.
It is always difficult to choose stocks. Experts therefore recommend stock funds or ETFs. In order to minimize the impact of low interest rates on investments, there is more and more betting on multi-market funds, which combine fixed and variable income applications.
Discover: Investors may claim damages.
Although suggested to conservatives (Itaú recommends 7% equity of this badet clbad), there is a risk of sudden oscillations, such as those that occurred during the arrest of truck drivers . In this case, to avoid losses, the recommendation is the same as that given to equity investors: keep the application and expect the worst to happen.
Include major fixed income investments
Banks are CBDs, LCAs and LCIs; the higher the bank, the lower the remuneration, because the risk of default is lower; letters of credit are exempt from IR; in the event of default, the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund) is covered up to 250,000 rand per FCP and per financial institution
. Companies issue debentures and the funds are used to finance investments; anyone who buys a debenture runs the risk of defaulting on the company because there is no guarantee of circumcision; when an investment in a debenture entails the risk of default of the company; when the money is intended for infrastructure work, it is exempt from income tax
In fixed investment, the income is known at the time of the request; it is advantageous to wait for a fall in interest; in the present moment, long-term bonds consider that rates will rise more than the market thinks it will happen; as a result, there are chances for higher returns
The IPCA + Treasury pays a fixed interest rate plus a change in inflation; this investment guarantees the currency's purchasing power over long-term investments, but may experience price fluctuations and losses in the event of pre-maturity repayment In recent years, when the Selic rate was greater than 14% per year, inflation-indexed government bonds came to pay 7% of real interest
The CDI is an interest rate that accompanies the Selic and is generally a benchmark for the remuneration of fixed income investments issued by the banks
The new savings brings 70% of Selic over TR; in 2018, the return was higher than the expected inflation for 2018
ETFs are funds that replicate a stock index, such as Ibovespa; the gain of this fund will be, at the end of a period, the same as that recorded by the Exchange; as it is a pbadive fund (no manager is making investment decisions), its rates are lower
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