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The Selic being at its lowest since March 2018 was marked by a high volatility of investments . Faced with the taking of elections, in addition to a tumultuous external scenario, the financial market has shifted from caution to euphoria – and this has been reflected in the price of securities, more and more. riskier. After many jumps, the stock market became the most profitable investment of the year, but uncertainties led to a fluctuation in fixed income prices. For those who have taken advantage of the opportunities, the gains have not disappointed. The Bovespa index, the main stock market thermometer, rose by 15.03% from 1 January 28 December – 235.95% from the CDI (rate which goes hand in hand with the Selic). Next come the Treasury IPCA – which yielded an average of 12.31% – and fixed-rate securities, with an average yield of 11.49%.
"It's a very unpredictable scenario that has generated a kind of" hangover "on the market," says Bernardo Pascowitch, founder of Yubb and head of the investigation. "The atmosphere has only been calmed by the definition of the electoral framework and the prospect of a government engaged in reforms, especially social security."
Michael Viriato, coordinator of Insper's Finance Lab, describes this year as a real mountain. -russa. "If you look at the year from beginning to end, just the beginning and the end, you have no idea how the film is going," he jokes. "The stock market rose 10% in January, then dropped nearly 20% and closed with a 15% increase."
Expectations for the future of the country have evolved not only with stock prices, but with cautious investments such as Treasury Direct . This is due to the so-called mark-to-market, which is the daily update of the price of an badet or quota of an investment fund. This mechanism allows the investor to know how much he would receive if he sold the bond today – that is, according to the supply and demand for that role, to the extent that the market is willing to pay.
Thus, it is the market value valuation that has boosted pre-determined and inflation-linked government bond gains – unlike the Selic Treasury, which tracks the daily rate of based. "Government bonds posted negative earnings until September, but in October the turnaround took place, which made all the difference in terms of the profitability of the year," says Viriato.
However, these gains only materialized for those who sold the securities. It should be remembered that the investor does not win or lose in the Direct Treasury unless he redeems before expiration. If you load the title until the end, you will have exactly the profitability agreed upon at the time of purchase.
"We do not recommend this trade (operation) with Treasury for beginners – because it is important that they set up an emergency reserve and also separate the funds for the future, "says investment consultant Sandra Blanco. "But for those who already have this reserve and a little more knowledge, the Treasury and fixed income have certainly offered good opportunities."
Viriato points out that this volatility of badets throughout the year meant that The multimury fund the "scrunchies" of 2017, did not go as well this year. According to Yubb, the average return for this category was 7.18%. The investment robots, at the top of the ranking last year, also achieved a median performance of 8.09%.
During the investigation, more than 184,000 products were considered accessible to individuals via online investment platforms throughout 2018, with liquidity of at least six months . Funds opened for retail trade have been mapped, with a minimum investment value of R $ 50,000.
Scenario for the financial market in 2019
For 2019, in the perspective of an economic recovery, the forecasts concerning the stock market are optimistic. "The scenario is already clearer because the political uncertainty has disappeared," says Sandra of Órama.
"Income from fixed income securities will be more limited, so we have changed the recommendation of variable income in the portfolio from 10% to 20%," he said. He notes that, for the beginning investor, it is better to go public through equity funds by looking for profile and management fees.
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