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The main indicators of the US stock markets have had the worst year since 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis. The Dow Jones, S & P 500 and Nasdaq indices ended the year 2018 in red, after peaking at a record high in a promising year for global financial markets.
net of the New York Stock Exchange, recorded a decline of 5.6%. This was the biggest devaluation since the 33.8% drop in the index in 2008, reflecting the sharp financial crisis that hit the markets after the bursting of the mortgage credit bubble. low quality in the United States.
The S & P 500, the stock market, fell 6.2%, also in the largest decline since 2008, when it fell 38.5%. And Nasdaq, the world's largest technology maker, recorded a cumulative decline of 3.9%, the highest recorded since the crisis (-40.5%).
The bad year was not limited to US markets. In China, stocks also posted the worst performance in ten years. In the financial market, the year ended very differently in the midst of signs of global slowdowns becoming stronger.
19659002] In the United States, on January 26, the Dow Jones, S & P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs, stimulated by the recovery of the US economy and the positive effect of the measures fiscal stimulus announced by President Donald Trump in the United States
euphoria lasted little. In February, rumors – confirmed the following month – confirmed that the Republican was planning to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from several countries, including China, in the first step of escalating trade tensions with the Asian giant. to the dispute between the two great powers of the world and accused the coup d'etat. Nasdaq reached a high of 8,109 points on Aug. 29, the S & P 500, a record high of 2,930 on Sept. 20, and Nasdaq hit a record high of 8,109 on Aug. 29. On October 3, Dow Jones reached 26,828 points.
But overall, the second half was a lot less fortunate for the markets. For starters, the US central bank said it could proceed with four interest rate rises in 2018 instead of the three indexed by investor prices. In the end, the Federal Reserve (the Fed, the US Monetary Authority) raised the rate four times a year.
In addition to making stock holdings less attractive because of the higher yield of US debt – The decision also put Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at odds with Trump.
The US then formulated explicit criticisms of the Fed's performance, saying it was threatening the growth of the US economy.
Trump's statements sparked fears over the independence of the monetary authority, implicitly refuted by Powell in the interview after the fourth increase in the interest rate. , claiming that the decision was not "political".
Interest rates also have a side effect on the appreciation of the dollar in the world, which ends up harming the activities of US multinationals that depend on the foreign market to improve their results in a commentary, Naeem Aslam, an badyst at Think Markets, says that it's no exaggeration to say that stock markets have experienced the worst year since the global financial crisis because of the Fed's strict monetary stance and the European Central Bank. other central banks around the world.
By 2019, the Fed had reduced the estimate of interest rates from three to two. The ECB, which ended its badet-purchase program in December, is not expected to raise eurozone rates next year due to the weakness of the major economies of the single currency bloc
. The outlook is a little better in 2019 also because there are many risky events that will keep investors cautious, "he wrote, among them the" Brexit ", the departure of the United Kingdom from the United States. European Union
Trade tensions between the United States and China remain apparent, as is the blocking of the US government because of the stalemate over the financing of the wall that President Donald Trump wants to build on the border with Mexico
The partial blackout, which began on the 22nd, was the culmination of a turbulent year on the markets.A quarter of the US federal government is running out of money, which represents 380,000 employees on unpaid leave and another 420,000 on unpaid leave.
As a backdrop, warning signs of a global slowdown can represent a year of turbulent markets. The IMF, the OECD, banks and rating agencies have already revised their global growth forecasts next year, worried markets and investors.
The slowdown in the US economy is already well known as certain. The biggest question is whether or not the country will go into recession by the time it enters the longest cycle of history expansion – if it continues to grow after June.
In China, the slowdown is also guaranteed, just as in Europe. In this context, Brazil appears as one of the few countries to accelerate economic growth in 2019; according to the most optimistic forecasts, GDP (gross domestic product) can reach 3.5%. The Central Bank's Focus Bulletin sees an increase of 2.55%.
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