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United States, Mexico and Brazil. The three American giants, which include 660 million people out of a billion living on the continent, will be led from Tuesday by three leaders who adhere to nationalism. An unusual triumvirate, a balance, with Washington as the main lighthouse, in which Jair Bolsonaro intends to be his favorite partner and with the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador fearing this approach, fearing to be sandwiched and needing to understand, at less, with its northern neighbor. Meanwhile, a factor permeates the environment. China's growing presence in the region could end up distorting and constituting the outside guest of the game for three American nationalists.
The political council of Latin America reorganized its most crucial plays that year. In general, the pendulum inclines further to the right. Mexico, which is not an easy task, was, in a way, an exception. López Obrador's overwhelming victory in July brought a left-wing leader to power for the first time. Meanwhile, Brazil and Colombia have turned even more to the right and, at the epicenter of the biggest crisis, Venezuela, a simulation of elections has only perpetuated the authoritarian Nicolás Maduro; a fracture that Daniel Ortega intensified on the basis of repression, with a conflict making nearly 300 dead, thousands of exiles and hundreds of persecuted, with incessant persecution of the independent press
The geopolitics of Continent will revolve around Trump, Lopez Obrador and Bolsonaro, three leaders with whom foreign policy can not be understood without a prior strengthening of the interior. In the newspaper, López Obrador and Donald Trump have shown their willingness to build good relations. If the White House tenant had declared that he would do great things with his new neighbor, the Mexican president, who took power on Dec. 1, declared that he had no intention to enter into conflict with his neighbor. His way of doing politics, his manners, the gestures that matter so much in those days are not so different, as Lopez Obrador had trouble showing in a month. The two do not really correspond to the traditional press, but they are there permanently, trying to define the agenda. Nobody hesitates to make mistakes, to blame his teams and to return to controversial decisions.
However, managing the migration crisis threatens to destroy the future of this uncertain couple. Trump points out every day that it is difficult for his country to obtain funding for its big election promise: the border wall that he wants to finish building. The Mexican government, convinced that the attacks will intensify in the coming months, as Trump's re-election campaign approaches, combines pragmatism and moderation. For that, he takes care to react ideologically to the attacks of a leader on the other side of the spectrum.
The Mexican Chancellery is concerned about the role that the Brazilian government will play this week, when Bolsonaro will take possession of Tuesday. As part of the ideological reorganization of the region, the new Brazilian leader is the last Brazilian leader. The victory of the far right ideologically aligned the largest country in Latin America on the world's largest power, on the other side of the continent. If there was not Canada, it would create on the map a kind of populism of the right-wing populism which, in turn, would move without brakes all over the world.
the legacy of former President Lula. The now-imprisoned left-wing leader has forged trade and industrial alliances with the southern countries of the continent, sheltered from Venezuelan Hugo Chávez's oil boom, and chased Brazil out of the United States. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, plans to become the main ally of Trump in the south, economically and ideologically. The new Brazilian president wants to be the interlocutor of the White House for conflicts in South America and, what is the same thing, be active for Maduro to come out of power in Venezuela. The first signs of a good rapprochement were shown at meetings held by the then-elected president with John Bolton, National Security Advisor at the White House.
Bolsonaro, aligned with Trump, intends to mitigate the economic influence of China, Brazil, despite the threat of potential retaliation of Beijing on the South American giant. The commercial enemy of the United States will play an important role in Latin American geopolitics. In recent years, the Asian giant has been able to form a bloc of countries that have abandoned their traditional relations with Taiwan and have opened the region's doors to China, particularly in Central America, of low economic value, but strategic. Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Panama and El Salvador form the new Beijing Allied Group in the Central American Integration System (SICA). The last three have formalized their relationship with the Asian giant over the past year. In the case of Costa Rica, the country signed in October its links with the second largest economy in the world in 2007.
The growing presence of China in the center of the continent will have no importance if Mexico decided to Open its doors. for the Asian giant, one of the movements – risky enough – that the Chancellery considers in the case where Trump ignores the promise to invest in the neighboring country. A new alliance that would also affect Brazil.
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