The Chinese population decreases in 2018 for the first time in 70 years | World

Official data will be released this month but, without waiting for them, expert Yi Fuxian, a researcher based in the United States at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, estimates that the population of China decreased by 1.27 million last year. of people.

A small amount compared to 1.39 billion inhabitants, more than 6.5 times the population of Brazil, but something unheard of in the history of the People's Republic of China , founded in 1949.

Founder of the communist regime, Mao Zedong, favored the birth, China introduced in 1979 the policy of the only child, often criticized for its brutality.

But in view of the aging of the population, in 2016 the government authorized all families to have two children. The problem: Due to the high cost of education, health and housing, many couples prefer to stay with one child or even none.

As a result, the number of births fell by 2.5 million last year, according to Yi Fuxian, while the Chinese authorities forecast an increase of 790,000. The total number of births, he said, should be Up to 10.31 million in 2018.

Meanwhile, the number of deaths has increased to 11.58 million, says the researcher, who bases his data on local statistics.

Last year, it is "a historic change for the Chinese people," Yi Fuxian told AFP, saying the trend might even be "irreversible ", given the decrease in the number of women of childbearing age.

"The Chinese population began to fall for the first time since 1949, the problem of aging has accelerated and the dynamism of the economy has lost its vigor," he said. .

Yi's research will be published in a study with economist Su Jian of Peking University, based on figures from the National Health Commission.

China enters an alarming "demographic crisis" economist Ren Zeping, of the real estate group Evergrande.

India is expected to become the most populous country on the planet in the years to come.

China's working-age population (16-59) fell by nearly 5.5 million in 2017, the sixth consecutive year of decline, reaching 902 million people (65% of the total population).

According to government projections, the number of people aged 60 and over is expected to reach 487 million in 2050, or 35% of the population, compared to 241 million (17.3%) by the end of 2017. [19659014] The number of women of childbearing age would fall by more than 39% over the next 10 years, according to He Yafu, an independent demographer who believes Professor Yi's predictions are credible.

The latter, who has long criticized the one-child policy, now urges the Chinese government to abolish the limit of two children per family and to promote births with generous paternity leave and tax incentives.