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Four of the six states that will exceed the pre-crisis economic level are with public accounts in abeyance. Roraima, for example, which is expected to reach 2019 with a gross domestic product (GDP) nearly 5% above the pre-recession level, is the subject of federal intervention for lack of control finance and public safety.
According to the Tendências Consultoria Integrada survey, the same goes for Mato Grosso do Sul, whose GDP must exceed 0.1% in 2014. State expenditure in personnel exceeded 70% while the limit of the law on liability (LRF) is 60%, according to data from the National Treasury. Mato Grosso and Santa Catarina are also above the limit.
The improvement of the economy should help the governors to put the account in the blank, but it does not solve the problem of the tax crisis in the United States. "They remain heavily indebted and their public spending is high," said Juliana Inhazs, professor of economics at Insper. According to her, the increase in GDP will aggravate or advance the problem.
This means that the situation may be aggravated by the increase in the collection, which will cover the escalation of expenses, especially with staff. Some of the elected governors promise to escape this trap. Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul are not part of the group that is expected to return to economic performance before the crisis this year, but its leaders promise to act double-edged: create the conditions to accelerate economic growth and reduce costs.
For Romeu Zema (MG) and Eduardo Leite (RS), one of the results is to improve the business environment in order to attract investment and generate income. On the other hand, they say that they will reduce expenses to balance the bills.
In the Northeast, the governors will have a double job, because they are far from returning to the level before the crisis. "In the region, there are states where the economic crisis has hit the hardest and where the recovery has been worse and slower," said economist Adriano Pitoli. According to him, until 2013, the Northeast was a positive event, thanks to income transfer programs such as Bolsa Familia. In addition, the region is highly dependent on pensions.
According to Tendências data, 26% of family income in the north-east of the country comes from Bolsa Família and INSS. Pitoli explains that both sources of income were strongly influenced by readjustments above the minimum wage inflation rate. "With the crisis of the public sector, it has changed.
The GDP of the PS should return to its pre-crisis level only in 2020
The economy of São Paulo, which represents about a third of the national GDP, should not return to its pre-crisis level in 2020 or 2021. In 2019, São Paulo should experience a growth of 2% – equal to the national average – but this percentage does not will still not be enough to reach the 2014 level. According to Tendências consultancy, MS's GDP will be 4, 1% below the pre-crisis level According to Adriano Pitoli, consulting firm economist, São Paulo closely follows the economic cycle due to the development of its industry (automotive, construction and metallurgy).
The 2018 quarterly GDP data of São Paulo established by the basis of the system of data badysis of the 39 (State) (Seade) report 2.7% growth in four-quarter results s in June compared to the previous period. The trend of expansion began to be observed in the second quarter of 2017, but remains insufficient to offset the losses recorded in recent years.
On the fiscal side, the state is heavily indebted and sees its staff costs increase. For the time being, spending is below the 60% ceiling set by the Social Responsibility Act (LRF), but has already exceeded the alert threshold of 54% of current net revenue, according to the data. National Treasury.
State debt rises to 200 billion rand, which accounted for 1.71% of net revenue in 2017 – an indicator considered high. The new government has the challenge of reducing this debt. The downsizing of the public machine is at the heart of the proposal of the new governor, João Doria (PSDB)
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