Only Six States Should Overcome the Economic Recession in 2019 – Economy

Only six states will be able to erase the damage caused by the economic downturn this year, as Par, Roraima, Mato Grosso, Santa Catarina, Rondnia and Mato Grosso do Sul will be the only ones to overcome the gross domestic product (GDP) recorded in 2014, when the country entered the worst recession in its history., Should give a boost to new governors, who will reduce their spending and payroll to fall under the law Financial Accountability (LRF), almost all of which Staff costs are above the 60% limit to pay for trees. But, with stronger growth, incomes tend to increase and give a little more space to the public coffers.

In the other 20 states and in the Federal District, the new governors will not have the same relief. According to the survey, their growth will be below the national average and will not be able to return to the level before the crisis. Alagoas, Maranho and Sergipe are the furthest away from the level of GDP recorded in 2014. "In several places, this level should be reached in 2020 or 2021," says Adriano Pitoli, economist at Tendncias, responsible for the survey "[19659004] He explained that, in the case of the six states, the economy was driven by the good performance of the agribusiness industry, greater exposure to the international market and by the maturation of mining projects, such as Vale & # 39; s in Par .. According to Mr. Pitoli, some unusual aspects are expected to have an impact on the GDP: the case of the growth of the number of Venezuelan immigrants to Roraima – which was under federal intervention until the end of the year. as of December 31. "Even though there are a lot of people, the economy is changing more, with more people looking for a job and the help of the federal government."

Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul will be influenced by Waiting for a record soybean crop in 2019. Agriculture also boost the economy of Rondnia. "In Santa Catarina, the favorable dollar will help the meat and metallurgy industry," he said.

From the trend data for 2017 and 2018, these states have already performed above the national average. And they should continue like this this year. Regionally, the North recorded the largest increase in GDP in 2019 due to the recovery of some regions, the Amazonas electro-electric industry being very sensitive to the economic cycle. "We have a slow and weak economic recovery, due in particular to the uncertainties regarding the reforms to be carried out in Brazil," says the Brazilian economist.

Ita Unibanco, Artur Pbados.