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SÃO PAULO – The early days of Jair Bolsonaro's government were marked by great euphoria on the Brazilian market, with a 4.5% fall in the stock market and a fall of the dollar of 4.1 % in just three days. Although many people attribute this movement to optimism with the new president, at least in exchange, the fall is not complete.
According to the executive director of the NGO Brokerage House, Sidnei Moura Nehme, some factors do not allow one to believe in a possible "Bolsonaro effect" the dollar's fall of R $ 3.87 at the end of the year. 39, last year to the current $ 3 R, 71.
He states that the strong demand for the spot market was already foreseen and that the "retrograde" performance of the Central Bank does not justify the rise of the currency in December and is another factor in understanding a correction at this stage. 19659004] "In a subjective reading, it is possible to admit a movement ordered by the banks, which contributed to the inertia of British Columbia in the supply of liquidity, money and credit. a strategic and forward-looking way, seeking, faced with an uncertain scenario with the inauguration of the new government, a higher Ptax to be applied in its balance sheets, thus including all its positions in the different segments of the foreign exchange market ", explains Nehmé .
Ptax is a reference rate used for contracts involving dollars, ranging from agreements between companies to the definition of dollar tourism and even currency futures. At the end of each month, there is a "fight" on the market for these players to get a better rate, because the set value will be used for contracts next month.
Nehme explains that there has been a more defensive market movement in the market. End of December, justified by the change of government and all the uncertainties that this entails for the investors.
Returning to the movement guided by the banks, the expert states that "the price of Ptax around R $ 3.87 was strategically defensive." With respect to this risk, reducing the intensity the calculation of the results, especially for the short positions held by the big banks on the dollar market to come. "
Nehme therefore emphasizes that the fall of the dollar is not a" Bolsonaro ", appearing" misleading "this beginning of the year movement. He explains that the scenario has not changed much in recent weeks, with optimism against the new government, while the outside still warns, especially in the United States and under the signs of the Federal Reserve.
Analysts conclude that the scenario is positive in the market, but caution is needed and more concrete events must occur for the exchange rate to rise and the dollar to fall. "
" In exchange, even on Bovespa, is favorable, but without durability in the movements during these first days, and it is not excluded that there is a volatility, it is the moment to proceed to adjustments and for that, it is necessary to have a better defined image, in concrete terms, here as abroad, concludes Nehme.
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