Ibovespa exceeds 93,000 points with external and social security; The dollar drops to $ 3.68

SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa has surpbaded the historic mark of 92,000 points obtained during the last trading session and is already operating above the 93,000 points supported by the good mood of foreign trade for a climate of optimism China.

The domestic winds are also favorable, the reform of social protection being more vigorous than that announced a few days ago by Jair Bolsonaro, which appeals to investors.

In this context, at 11:26, the Ibovespa rose by 1.13% to reach 93,069 points after reaching a maximum of 93,122 points.

The futures contract expiring in February 2019 was down 0.71% to R $ 3,691 and the trading dollar was 0.78% to R $ 3,688. The actual goes up to the fifth day of appreciation of the dollar, which broke the psychological level of R $ 3.70 in six trading days.

Optimism with Brazil brings CDS (Credit Default Swaps) to the sixth consecutive decline.

For the XP research team, the trading session between the world's largest economies was closed in a climate of goodwill both sides, despite the natural divergence on some points. "There are still two months of negotiations to come, but if an agreement was reached, it would be very positive for the markets," say badysts in a report sent to customers.

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With regard to social security, the badessment is that the proposal of a minimum age "lies more in the ideal" (62 years and 65 years) years) and a shorter transition cycle would be the best reform in many respects. "This gives at least a short-term tax relief on the tax issue, at least 4 years and with the new capitalization rule, it opens up space for at least a decade to revisit the issue," said Jason Vieira, an economist with Chief at Infinity Asset.

Global Equity

The Asian stock markets ended bullish with optimistic expectations with the end of the trade war between China and the United States. Negotiations in Beijing between representatives of the two countries ended Wednesday (9), a day later than expected, and officials said the details would be released soon.

In addition, the fact that China plans to take measures to stimulate the consumption of automobiles and household appliances has been positively influenced by the central government of the country, which announced that It would increase its investment in infrastructure.

Optimism drives European stock markets, which are also increasing, but investors keep an eye on Brexit. British Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a defeat in Parliament yesterday. Parliamentarians opposed to leaving the United Kingdom from the European Union without an agreement won a vote, thus creating an additional hurdle to a Brexit without agreement.

Future US indices are also increasing with general optimism. President Donald Trump issued an official statement last night to defend the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico, a stalemate between the government and congressional Democrats, leading to a halt in funding for various public services that is already reaching its 19th day.

Trump said that there was a humanitarian and security crisis at the border and had called "How much American blood will have to be paid until congressional approval?" The majority of the United States House is a Democrat and opposes the construction of the

Pension Reform

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The Greater Risk Appetite also Influences the Commodity Market and oil prices also work at a high level. The government is expected to send to Congress in February a more robust pension reform proposal, with changes to the current pension system, but also with the creation of a new capitalization model for workers who will continue to enter the labor market. labor market

. Ministers of the Civil House, Onyx Lorenzoni, and Paulo Guedes, of the economy, said the vision of the economic team for more sustainable reform should prevail in the version to follow. will be presented to President Jair Bolsonaro next week

Bolsonaro will always be out of breath and the economic team will still have to convince him that the National Congress is able to digest the proposal for a more severe reform and to long term. Last week, the president had put forward a "lighter" proposal, only for his term, which was apprehensive among economists, as it would not represent a definitive solution to the serious imbalance in public accounts.

This morning, the President confirmed the revocation of Brazil's accession to the Global Compact for safe, orderly and regular migration. On his Twitter account, he said the initiative was motivated by the preservation of national values. "Brazil is sovereign to decide whether to accept migrants," said the president. "No to the pact on migration."

Economic Agenda

Day of the agenda emptied in Brazil. Abroad, the minutes of the Federal Reserve will be published at 5 pm (Brasilia) and the investor will look for clues in view of the unanimous decision to raise interest rates in December. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently announced a more moderate view of monetary policy and raised optimism in the stock markets as the world's largest economies slowed.

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Political News

The Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, confirmed that the provisional anti-fraud measure in social security and badistance will be addressed this Wednesday (9) to President Jair Bolsonaro. Guedes has once again stated that the tax incidence of the measure should be between 17 and 20 billion dollars a year, including in 2019.

According to the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, the ministers confirmed that the pension reform proposal will be presented in Bolsonaro next week and pbaded on to Congress – with the creation of a new capitalization model – in February.

Senior House of Representatives Civilian Onyx Lorenzoni said the decree making firearms more flexible should be ready next week. The subject was addressed by the President at the ministerial meeting held yesterday at the Palazzo del Plbadto.

Other subjects follow at full speed in the Bolsonaro government. His team is studying the change in the federal highway concession model. According to Folha de S. Paulo, instead of asking for cheaper tolls, the Ministry of Infrastructure estimates to bill billionaires at upcoming auctions.

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This system, similar to that adopted by the Toucan governments in the state of São Paulo since the 1990s, would abandon the concessions granted by the State of São Paulo. it was in favor of the toll reduction criterion, which was in force in the administrations of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, and which was criticized for its economic impossibility.

If the proposal is successful, the funds raised will be used to cover the costs. a national road fund aimed at making improvements and duplications to other roads so that they can also be granted.