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SÃO PAULO – The quieter external scenario should help the Ibovespa to seek new heights this Friday (11) after the index has accumulated 8 peaks in nine trading sessions and reaches 94,000 points. In addition, investors should react to information disclosed in the press about the design of the pension reform.
In this context, at 9:10 am, the Ibovespa futures contract rose by 0.14% to 94,465 points. The dollar futures maturing in February 2019 decreased by 0.48% to R $ 3,698 and the trading dollar decreased from 0.38% to R $ 3,696.
In today's economic agenda, the IPCA (National Extended Consumer Price Index), which measures the country's official inflation, recorded an increase of 3.75% in 2018, in accordance with the goal set by the federal government for the year, which was 4.5% with a margin of 1.5 point
During the year, the main drivers of inflation were the food and beverage groups, with an impact of 4.04% and 0.99 points on the index, transport, 4.19% and 0.76 percentage points, and Housing , 4.72% and 0.74 pp, according to IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
In the United States, inflation data concerns investors, which is also waiting for a solution to the 21-day lockdown by Donald Trump's government.
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Global Equity
The Asian stock markets ended up following the improvement of the US market during the trading session of Yesterday with the increase in risk appetite, despite concerns with the closure and the Chinese economic slowdown.
The closure is the closure of the government because the current fiscal year budget was not approved
On the other hand, the United States and China will continue the discussions . at the end of the month, which encouraged the market. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He plans to travel to Washington to meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to resume trade talks between the two largest economies. around the world on January 30 and 31, according to sources cited by Dow Jones Newswires.
European stock markets are already closely monitoring the Brexit discussions, but following the global mood. US futures indices are operating in near stability while waiting for inflation data and new information on closures.
It is to be feared that the current closure, which is in its 21st day, will continue despite the stalemate. between Democrats and President Donald Trump, who calls for funding a wall on the Mexican border.
In the absence of a solution, Trump cancels his trip to Davos, scheduled for January 22, for the opening of the World Economic Forum. The US president used his Twitter account to give Democrats their absence during this event.
Oil prices rise for the tenth day in a row, leaving aside concerns about the global economic outlook and expected production cuts.
Social Security Reform
In order to "disengage" the Brazilian pension rules, the government wants to include transitional rules for certain points in the pension reform proposal. According to the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, the idea is to establish these norms by leaving a command so that they can be modified in the future by bills, without it being necessary to modify the Constitution .
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The capitalization scheme provided for in the pension reform should include a system of individual accounts similar to that of the Direct Treasury, reports the newspaper Economic Value. One of the sources of inspiration for the proposal to the government is an academic text that defends the creation of the PIA (Individual Savings for Retirement).
The idea is that, instead of the fund system administered by open and closed provident entities, the resources are kept in individual accounts, moved to a platform similar to the direct treasury, in which the citizens invest in government bonds.
The academic text was written by economists Abraham and Arthur Weintraub, of the current Minister of Civil Household, Onyx Lorenzoni, and by Professor Giuseppe Ludovico of the University of Milan.
According to the O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper, it should only apply to the capitalization system studied by the government. The economic team has not closed the door yet, but the advantage of this model is that it reduces the cost of the transition because it avoids the significant recovery losses that would occur if all new workers migrated. and contributed only to the new model [19659003] The capitalization is a scheme in which the insured contributes to an individual account that will be paid and then used to pay the benefits. Today, Brazil is adopting the distribution system, in which the contributions paid by workers and employers help pay the benefits of people already retired.
Dispute in Brasilia
The connection Brasilia this week welcomes the political badyst Ricardo Ribeiro, from MCM Consultores. On the agenda, the conflict over the presidencies of the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate, the signs and discrepancies between Jair Bolsonaro's base forces on social security reform and the balance of the first 10 days of the new government. The show is broadcast live from 14:45 (19459017) Brasilia ) on InfoMoney's Facebook page and on InfoMoney TV.
Political News
A lieutenant-captain of the marine reserve clbadified in the category of "private friends" of President Jair Bolsonaro was appointed Thursday (10) to badume the executive direction of intelligence and the security of the Petrobras companies. Carlos Victor Guerra Nagem has been an official for 11 years and is currently working in Curitiba.
Since his arrival in Petrobras, Nagem has graduated twice to participate in the 2002 and 2016 elections, under the nickname of Captain Victor and affiliated with the PSC – party to which Bolsonaro joined and for which he was elected federal deputy in 2014.
On the economic front, the Plbadto Palace has issued a note stating that Bolsonaro will not exercise the right of veto to which it is entitled in commerce between Embraer and the US Boeing. The note explains that the President has been informed that the final proposal of the agreement "preserves sovereignty and national interests" and, therefore, will not exercise the right of veto.
Last week, Bolsonaro expressed concern over the deal by the possibility of Embraer to sell Boeing in the future the 20% it will have in the new company. "We can not, as in the last proposal, in five years, everything will be gone on the other side," said the president of the time.
Corporate News
A Camil $ 150.3 million in the third quarter, stimulated by the recognition of exceptional tax credits in October
Embraer confirmed that the strategic partnership with Boeing had been approved by the Brazilian government. The company expects the transaction to be finalized by the end of 2019. In a statement to the market, the Brazilian manufacturer recalls that this approval comes after the two companies signed the terms of the agreement last month. the joint venture envisioning Embraer commercial aviation and related services. Boeing will hold 80% of the new company's capital and Embraer will hold the remaining 20%.
The Brazilian and American also reached an agreement on the terms of a second joint venture to promote and develop new markets for multi-mission aircraft. KC-390. According to the proposed partnership, Embraer will own a 51% stake in the joint venture and Boeing will hold a 49% stake.
BRF sold its subsidiary Campo Austral for 35.5 million US dollars. and concluded his complete departure from Argentina. Campo Austral operates three Argentine plants with a total slaughter capacity of 2,300 pigs per day and a processing of 2,100 tons per month, sausages and fresh meat.
In addition to the changes to the executive direction of Petrobras Castello Branco wishes to change the composition of the board of directors of the company. According to the newspaper Valor Econômico, Castello Branco would press for the departure of two other board members, which would allow the Bolsonaro government to indicate four vacancies on the board, which will facilitate the decision to pay to the company. State of the resources of the difficult task. Still on state radar, Petrobras raised the average price of gasoline in refineries to R $ 1.4624, as of Friday (11).
Morgan Stanley badysts downgraded Multiplan to "underweight" (below the market average, the equivalent of a sale). Paper was previously clbadified as "equal weight" (market-conform or neutral). The target price, meanwhile, rose from R $ 22 to R $ 23, which implies a devaluation of 4.8% compared to the previous closing.
Morgan Stanley also lowered the recommendation for papers. from Iguatemi . The papers, previously clbadified as "overweight", were reduced to "equivalent weight" (target or neutral market), with a target price of R $ 42, which
The XP Research Team Investimentos improved the "neutral" recommendation of "buying" the papers JBS thereby increasing the target price of R EZ Te launched a new venture in the southern area of São Paulo, entitled "The Ibirapuera Garden", for R $ 71.6 million. will have a residential tower and a total of 24.
Sabesp's council elected Benedito Braga Júnior to the position of CEO of the company. The executive, who was chairman of Sabesp's board from January 2015 to April 2018, will also join the board of directors. (19659003) (with Agência Estado and Agência Brasil)
(in thousands of reais, unless otherwise indicated)
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