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Capital Markets Week will highlight the continuity of discussions on social security reform, which will be proposed to Congress by President Jair Bolsonaro's team. The head of the Civil Cabinet, Onyx Lorenzoni, met on Monday to discuss the proposal prepared by the team of the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, along with other ministers. It is only next week that the final proposal will be submitted to President Bolsonaro for approval.
The information that Guedes intended to carry out a more profound reform, with a shorter transition period and the creation of a capitalization system in which each worker saves to take his retirement, encouraged investors and renewed the register. records, exceeding 93 thousand points. O also declined, indicating greater confidence in the reform.
Another issue related to Social Security reform will be the articulation for the election of Presidents of the House and Senate, which may indicate the strength that Bolsonaro and his team will have in Congress. Today's argument favors Rodrigo Maia in the House and Renan Calheiros in the Senate. The vote will take place in early February, when the newly elected parliamentarians will take office.
Data on trade, services and IBC-Br
In the economic agenda, IBGE will communicate the results of the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC) and the Monthly Survey on Services (EMC) from November, Tuesday and Wednesday. respectively. Thursday, the Central Bank (BC) announces the IBC-Br, before the economic activity of November.
For Banco Fator, the Monthly Trade Survey is expected to post a 0.60% increase in retail sales during the month and an inter-annual peak of 2.50%. The expanded retail sales, which include vehicles and building materials, are expected to rise 1.20% from October and up 4.20% from one year to the next.
Banco Bradesco (SA 🙂 estimates that sales in the retail and services sector will close the diagnosis of the activity in November. The bank expects retail growth to remain above average for other segments, with growth of 0.5% in November.
Itaú (SA 🙂 forecasts a 0.9% increase in trade over the month for major retail sales and a 0.7% increase for the broad segment.
For billing services, Bradesco estimates the stability of the month. "Given these results and the observed performance of industrial production, the IBC-Br, an indirect indicator of GDP published by the CB, should have increased by 0.4% in November," said the bank. The IBC-Br will be released Thursday by the Central Bank. The consulting firm LCA provides stability compared to the previous month and an increase of 1.5% over the previous year.
Banco Fator expects the monthly services survey to show that the volume of services remained stable from October to November and recorded an increase of 0.9% over to 2017.
For the survey of the services sector, Itaú expects an increase of 0.5% over the previous year. Regarding the IBC-Br for November, the bank currently expects an increase of 0.2% over the previous month.
IGP-10
Inflation data will also be available this week with the January IGP-10, to be announced Wednesday (16) by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). It should record a slight increase of 0.07% over the month and 7.17% over 12 months in January, according to Banco Fator. LCA Consultores is expecting a new deflation on the IGP-10, down 0.05% over the month.
Itaú also highlights the paper production data of ABPO, an indicator linked to industrial production in December, which will be published this week, but without a specific date.
Activity and Inflation Abroad
With regard to the international agenda, the salient points will be the industrial production of the euro zone on Monday; US producer prices (PPIs) Tuesday; Euro zone consumer prices (CPI) on Thursday and US industrial production on Friday. And Banco Fator adds that he will continue the expectations with the dispute between US President Donald Trump in Congress around the wall, on the border with Mexico.
The economic agenda will bring a series of important data on global activity, says Banco Votorantim. In the United States, we highlight sales of retail sales, industrial production and real estate, probably in the context of the US government's fiscal stalemate. The industry figures in the euro area, the Tankan survey in Japan and the data on credit and foreign trade in China will also be released.
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