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The British Parliament is due to vote Tuesday (15) on the Brexit proposal proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May and already approved by the European Union. Initially, the vote should have taken place on December 11, but in anticipation of a defeat, May postponed it to January.
Still, the government must lose anyway. Even the Conservative Party has already made it known that it did not agree with the proposed terms and that there was no chance of getting the necessary votes to approval. The big question now is what will happen next.
The date set for the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union is March 29 this year at 11 pm local time. But even that might change, as the lack of consensus can lead to an extension of time.
Convincing British Parliament to Support Brexit
If Parliament's Refusal to Endorse Agreement is confirmed by the Prime Minister, the prime minister has only three days to propose an alternative – or try to persuade parliamentarians again to approve the same text
Theoretically, if he is beaten a Once again and his plan B is also rejected, the United Kingdom will pbad without agreement to a Brexit in which he will leave the bloc without right.
In this way, there would be no transition period and as of March 29, the laws of the European Union would no longer be valid in the country. in particular tests to solve the problems of transport in airports and the Channel, for example.
But there are many options and nobody knows how to do it.
An unidentified European official quoted by the newspaper Sunday said that "if the prime minister survives and tells us that she needs more time to reach an agreement with the Parliament, a
Another source even said in the same report that the delay could be even longer, but that e the May European Parliament elections could hinder the process.
In the limit of possibilitiesThe proposal created by the rejection of the proposal still leaves May the possibility of losing the post of Prime Minister and even to organize a second referendum during which the British decide to cancel the Brexit, although that this is the least likely situation.
Below is a brief summary of what may happen after Tuesday's vote:
The agreement proposed by Theresa May is approved and Brexit comes into force on March 29 at 11 pm in accordance with its terms. . This is the least likely of all scenarios.
The agreement is rejected, but May presents a plan B which is approved by Parliament. In this case, it is necessary to resubmit the text to the European Union for its members to adopt it unanimously. The problem in this case is that the bloc had already stated that it wished to apply the text that it had approved in November and that it would not accept any changes.
Highly likely situation, particularly with EU officials stating that they can extend the deadline until July. Indeed, unless the agreement initially proposed by May in May is approved on Tuesday, it is virtually impossible that another solution is ready to come into effect as early as March 29th.
If no plan proposed by the Prime Minister is approved and the deadline expires, the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without agreement. Some parliamentarians argue that it would not be so serious, but most, and the government itself, want to avoid this option because it would have catastrophic consequences for the British economy, as well as for chaos and bureaucratic legislation .
New Prime Minister's Election
Theresa May faced – and won – a vote of confidence from her own party, who can no longer challenge her for a year. But they can exert unofficial pressure or decide to resign if they suffer a major defeat or are too tired by the Brexit record. Another situation that could lead to general elections would be a vote of confidence made public by his opponents to the Labor Party, although only a part of him seems ready to use this strategy. In this case, the parties would have 14 days to prove their ability to lead the government. If none succeeds, elections will be called. The next Prime Minister would then be responsible for resolving Brexit's behavior.
In December, the EU's legal adviser announced that the UK was allowed to cancel Brexit unilaterally if it so wished. In other words, if you decide to cancel the process, the country will not need to consult the block.
There are many lawmakers in favor of a new referendum to formalize this cancellation, but Theresa May has already stated that "Brexit is a Brexit" and that it will respect the result of the 2016 vote In addition, the chances of a new referendum are great This would depend on the mbadive support of the Labor Party, but its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has already indicated that he would prefer to negotiate a new Brexit agreement to cancel the exit.
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