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SÃO PAULO – The Brazilian foreign exchange market took time to seize the good mood of investors on the national scene, but ended the day among the best positions among world currencies. Considering a list of 33 currencies, the Brazilian real finished the session in second place behind the Mexican peso only.
The real started the day losing ground against the dollar and was allowed to rest for much of the session. relative to the positive performance of future interests and the stock market. In the afternoon, however, there was a sign of relief from the outside and the exchange allowed to take advantage of the optimism sparked by the local agenda. Today, US President Donald Trump said he thought he could conclude a trade deal with China and put an end to the crisis. between the two largest economies in the world. "We are doing very well with China," said the Republican. "I think we will be able to reach an agreement with China – China wants to trade," he added.
Trump's comments are a welcome relief, with risky badets reacting negatively to signs of slowing Chinese economy. The country's exports decreased by 4.4% in December, compared to an annual increase of 2%.
"We started the day with the most negative perspectives, but Trump's speeches eased the pressure, as they reinforce some optimism through an agreement." Cleber Alessie Machado Neto, H operator .Commcor, explains Cleert Alessie Machado Neto.
Thanks to this relief abroad, the foreign exchange market has been able to take advantage of the good performances of the other local segments.The perspectives of reform of the social badistance now protect the local markets for depreciation, so much so that Ibovespa is on the rise and future interest rates – good country risk thermometers – are slightly lower.
"There is a positive scenario for Brazil, with the imminence of a tax adjustment, "says H.Commcor's operator.In contrast, the foreign exchange market has already enjoyed a good recovery early in the year, when the dollar has gone $ 3.90. "In order to change gears and speed up the movement, the investor needs more concrete facts. The market is driven by expectations, but it lacks concrete facts, such as the text of the pension reform that actually offers the Temer project's economy. "
Operators have recently pointed out that the amount of US $ 3.70 was a significant psychological support, that is to say that after slipping under this mark last week, it is natural that a correction or pause takes place before a new movement favorable to the real. "There are still points of uncertainty and the market avoids exaggerating the more positive movements." For the moment , the US dollar is consolidating between R $ 3.68 and R $ 3.72 ", indicates the broker of H.Commcor [19659002] For the experienced manager of a fund of São Paulo, good humor vis-à-vis The local scene ends up "protecting" Brazilian badets from shocks and even noises from the local press. Graphically, the dollar support region is at $ 3.68 and then at $ 3.60. "It would be possible to test R $ 3.60 in the short term and then get a moderate performance," says the expert. Only more serious frustration with the reform agenda would allow a stronger correction. "That does not seem to be the case now, maybe in a few months when the proposal will be submitted to Congress and it turns out to be difficult to get votes for approval," he said. he declares. For now, however, he sees the market more likely to test the dollar's support levels than resistance.
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