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In this presidential election year in Argentina, President Mauricio Macri, likely candidate for reelection, suggests a new turning point when he addresses President Jair Bolsonaro closer than expected.
Even though he is a politician lined up right, Macri is perceived as "to the left of Bolsonaro". According to Argentine badysts, however, he "clearly" emphasized the importance for Argentina of maintaining good relations with the new Brazilian president, Brazil being the main partner of Argentina and its ally in other areas, such as nuclear.
President Jair Bolsonaro and Argentine President Maurício Macri – Photo: ERNESTO RODRIGUES / ESTADÃO CONTENT
At the approach of Bolsonaro, they include the experts consulted by BBC News Brazil, Macri would also examine the polls and the decision to face the former president Cristina Kirchner, his main political opponent
It is badumed in Argentina that his predecessor, Macri, could return to power.
Alongside Macri, Bolsonaro dec lare want to strengthen relations with Argentina
For the badyst Rosendo Fraga, of the Nova Maioria Studies Center, the rapprochement of Macri le Bolsonaro is part of the "electoral strategy" of the Argentine president .
Other researchers, such as sociologist and professor Andrés Kozel, of San Martín University (UNSAM) of Buenos Aires, observed that this approach could also have a cost, Bolsonaro being a politician controversial for part of the Argentine electorate.
"For many, Bolsonaro is a name that symbolizes the simple and quick solution to complicated problems, but for others, it is someone who represents the far right, a position they reject firmly, "says Kozel.
During his meeting with Bolsonaro in Brasilia this week, Macri invited his Brazilian colleague to visit Argentina. It is scheduled for April, when the election campaign for the October elections will heat up in the neighboring country.
Research indicates that Cristina Kirchner is Macri's main opponent in the electoral field. The nominations have not yet been formally defined and it is not confirmed whether Macri's predecessor, who headed Argentina between 2007 and 2015, will attempt to return to Casa Rosada.
Cristina, who is friends with former presidents Lula and Dilma (as she said), was allied with former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez (1954-2013).
Members of the Macri government often claim that his return to power could lead Argentina to follow "the trail" of the economic and political crisis in Venezuela. This statement has been repeated since Macri badumed the presidency of the Security Council in December 2015.
In Brasilia, Macri's presence at Plbadto Palace was broadcast live on television and radio stations in Buenos Aires. The Venezuelan president has taken the opportunity to say that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is "a dictator who wants to perpetuate himself in power with fictitious elections" and that the Venezuelan National Assembly, led by the president of Venezuela opposition, is "the only legitimate institution in Venezuela, democratically elected by the people".
This was not the first time that Macri was criticizing the Venezuelan government, but the Argentinean commentators drew attention to the fact that he was more emphatic than his Brazilian colleague when he did not want to talk about it. he had called Maduro a "dictator".
The day after his meeting with Bolsonaro on Thursday, Macri said he had returned from Brazil "very enthusiastic" and that there was "a determination of joint work" and "many coincidences" between the two governments. One of the examples cited by Argentina is the bilateral decision "to speed up the integration" and "to open the Mercosur".
For example, it is expected that the bloc's founding countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) could implement the free-trade treaties separately and not necessarily in groups.
Argentine badysts and Brazilian government sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, told BBC News Brazil that there was an "agreement" between the two presidents and an "identity of intent" concerning Mercosur and the "safety program". internal, bilateral and regional levels.
A source in Brasilia also stated that it would appear that Macri would have interpreted it as "positive" for "sticking his image" to someone who has just been elected with " a liberalization program "and" focusing on security ".
The Argentine president is often praised, among diplomats and experts, for his "resourcefulness" in the practice of "presidential diplomacy", while being criticized for the conduct of the economy.
But in the evaluation of these observers, an alliance more intense than expected between the two presidents can be born, whether by external or internal problems.
This was the first meeting between the two presidents, Macri having not attended the inauguration of Bolsonaro on January 1st. His absence at the ceremony had spawned a series of speculations in Argentina. Among them, this Macri did not want to appear alongside the former captain, for his controversial statements, in this year of election in Argentina.
"Bolsonaro, the most uncomfortable partner of Macri", wrote an editorialist of La Nación at the end of last year.
It is Bolsonaro who telephoned Macri shortly after the first round of the election in Brazil. And not Macri, who did not know Bolsonaro and was a friend of the former presidential candidate, Fernando Haddad (PT), with whom he shared meetings and conversations when he was mayor of Buenos Aires and from São Paulo.
In addition, military personnel involved in politics generally elicit the rejection of Argentine voters by the memory of the dictatorship in the country (1976-1983).
However, on Thursday, Argentine newspapers and portals stressed "harmony" between the two presidents at the meeting in Brasilia, speaking in the same direction, on topics such as Venezuela and Mercosur.
Hector Rubini, Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of El Salvador, states that Macri is considered a liberal or neoliberal in the economic field, but that he is usually left-wing of Bolsonaro. At the same time, she badyzes that Macri won the 2015 presidential election with "very tired and disappointed" voters thanks to Cristina's internal and external politics, including her closeness to Venezuela.
"Macri has always been against the Venezuelan regime.But three years have pbaded since his government, the Argentine economy is not doing well and scolding Maduro is a way to keep at least his faithful electorate," said Rubini .
But the badyst points out that, when the time comes to go to the polls, Argentine voters will be more interested in the country's inflation – the highest in 27 years – and in the rates of High interest than Macri's foreign policy.
"If the economy improves, Macri will have a chance to get re-elected. If that does not improve, the scenario will be favorable for Cristina or another Peronist candidate," she said. he declared. Other economists have said that if the Brazilian economy grows under Bolsonaro, it would positively affect the performance of the Argentine economy.
Professor Andrés Kozel, of UNSAM, thinks that when he approaches Bolsonaro and ratifies his distance with Maduro, Macri also targets the undecided Argentine electorate.
"Macri makes a coherent foreign policy with his speech, unlike Bolonaro, he is more progressive in his internal measurements, but when he approaches it, he wants to show that it depends on Macri, Argentina will not have the (At the same time, Macri can not be too attached to Bolsonaro, as many of them disagree with the positions of the Brazilian president, "said Kozel. [19659035] The badyst also observes that another fact is getting closer to the two presidents: the relationship with the United States.
Macri is a longtime friend of Donald Trump, who has received the $ 1. support for the agreement signed by Argentina with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2018. Trump also participated in the G20 meeting (group of the largest economies in the world) held at the end of the year. last year in Buenos Aires.
Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is called by the international press of "Trump of the tropics" and is shown in search of a permanent rapprochement with the American president.
Analyst Rosendo Fraga also cites Macri's decision to adopt a stricter public safety policy.
"In the electoral field, Macri runs the risk of losing votes to the right-wing candidates that emerged in recent days in Argentina, so he is adopting the Brazilian president's energetic policies," he says.
In Argentina, the controversial debate on the reduction of penal age, for example, has recently been reopened. And Macri has already congratulated the police who have acted, even in a controversial way, against criminals.
Fraga agrees with Kozel that "the image of Bolsonaro in Argentina is not good", but points out that, according to him, "the worst is that of Trump" and that it did not not prevented "good bilateral relations between Buenos Aires and Washington."
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