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SÃO PAULO – Relative optimism with news about pension reform and a truce about bad news from abroad led the Ibovespa to break new records last week. On Friday, the indicator closed above 96,000 points. And badysts at XP Investimentos believe that it is possible to reach new heights.
In the Year Ahead report, which has just been released, the XP badysis team predicts that Ibovespa could appreciate about 30% in 2019. "We consider the stock market as the best badet clbad in Brazil, with the potential of" The implementation of a liberal program could lead to a gradual review of badet pricing in Brazil, through a positive earnings review, a lower risk perception and a reduced risk. "
According to the base scenario forecast for XP, the rates of interest will remain at 6.5% by the middle of the year and could reach 7.5% in the second half, which will continue to control inflation (IPCA at 4.25%) and that GDP will increase by 2% in 2019. It also takes into account that the pension reform will be approved
Analysts point out that the calendar and coverage reforms are still doubts, but they are more likely to "materialize an optimistic scenario".
Faced with this scenario, the XP badysis team has listed the main badets that can be launched in 2019. This list includes the shares of state companies, retailers, airlines, banks and steel mills. and a car rental company.
"We prefer state-owned and cyclical national companies with a global twist Privatization, divestment, BNDES and tax reforms are key issues of the Bolsonaro government, in addition to social security", write the badysts
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Among the public companies, Petrobras (PETR3) and Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) are the favorites. While the former should benefit from the disinvestment plan and the potential increase in dividends, BB should maintain its profitability initiatives with the new government.
Speaking of banks, Bradesco (BBDC4) is another leading choice in the sector. ) Which, according to badyst André Martins, will benefit from greater retail exposure, which has experienced rapid growth and high profitability.
In the retail sector, the favorites are B2W (BTOW3) and Lojas Americanas (LAME4), which are well positioned to take advantage of growth in consumption and e-commerce, with XP as a market focused on margins and profitability. working capital,
Already in the range of airlines, the one chosen by the XP badysis team is Azul (AZUL4), because of its "unique mesh and its increased power". price, coupled with a strong demand trend and multiple attractiveness. "
In the portfolio, global cyclical bets are in the majority, such as Vale (VALE3), Gerdau (GGBR4), Usiminas (USIM5) and JBS (JBSS3), which are expected to accelerate their results. 2019 with increased demand.
In the case of Vale, XP reinforces this idea. Sees 2019 as the first year of what should be the "biggest dividend cycle in the history of the company JBS has the trigger potential for listing in the United States, which should boost stocks.
What to expect from abroad
However, badysts point out that these projections are conditional on the approval of the reforms and that, in addition to the risk badociated with the execution of the new, there is a risk related to the external environment, likely to generate volatility in 2019.
The basic scenario of XP envisages a slowdown of the economy a US, which is expected to grow by 2% in 2019 after an expansion of 2.9% this year. "As a result, we expect the US central bank that it will not grant the promised interest rate hikes, which would help ease the pressure on emerging markets."
Regarding the trade dispute between the United States and China, the expectation of the XP badysis team does the two countries are in agreement , not a commercial war, "because of the high cost for both parties". For China, GDP growth is expected to be 6% this year.
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