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Monday's military rebellion
in the barracks of the Bolivarian National Guard (GNB) located in the slums of Caracas reflects, according to Javier Mayorca, a specialist in military issues, "a climate of growing dissatisfaction within the military world" and, especially, GNB . in touch with the people and less armored by the Nicholas Maduro government.
In an interview with GLOBO, the badyst said that "it was a movement a little organized and without outside support". In total, confirmed, participated 26 soldiers led by Sergeant Jose Gregorio Bandres Figueroa. All are arrested and submitted to military courts.
How do you explain this rebellion, the first in Venezuela for a long time?
There is a climate of dissatisfaction in the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (Fanb), and this climate is expressed in many ways. The most frequent were absences, desertions. Last year GNB lost 10% of its members. The rest of the force, those who are active, have begun to ask for more licenses, to avoid working. This, at another time, would have led to the application of sanctions. Today, the situation inside the GNB is very precarious and commanders tolerate things that in the past would not be tolerated.
This was the first significant rebellion since the middle of 2017 …
Last year, two movements were dismantled in order to bring about political change. One of the most remarkable was commanded by Colonel Chaparro of the Army Ayala Battalion, which features greater firepower inside Fort Tiuna (the main barracks of Caracas).
What can we expect now?
Caution is needed. Civil society remains skeptical of civilian and military leaders and all are suspected.
The emergence of Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly, has created an atmosphere of hope, both inside and outside the military world?
One of the things that facilitated membership in Guaidó was that he was a stranger. There are expectations, but also mistrust.
Yes, but many people still fear being betrayed. Research shows that the vast majority of the country, about 80% of the population, wants a political change or wants Maduro to resign from power and would prefer that it be peaceful, constitutional and electoral. There is growing support for the opposition sectors and the desire to come back to the streets again. The challenge for Guaidó and his allies in Venezuela is to turn resentment towards the government into a political movement, into activism.
What is the relationship between the rebellion of yesterday and the marches called for tomorrow?
It is still not clear. We must observe the government and see if it will use this rebellion to persecute opponents, civilians and military. At first, the government was joking about Guaido, but that changed. In the armed forces, its emergence also has an impact, but the process is slow. The navy, the aeronautics and the army are armored, its members have limited access to the media, social networks. The most related are those of the National Guard, who are on the street with the population. It is not by chance that the rebellion was promoted by a GNB sergeant.
Did they have external support?
This is not clear to me. It seems to me a spontaneous movement, internal and even disorganized.
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