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Numerous and vigorous new indicators show a very favorable evolution of the Brazilian economy. Even in a year in which the country has been subject to unexpected shocks and long-term adverse effects, in addition to dealing with the uncertainties of a turbulent political scenario, formal employment has significantly progressed. In 2018, 529,554 jobs were created with a formal contract. This is a very clear sign that for families also affected by unemployment that is increasing since the end of 2014, the situation is improving. Credit recovery, lower interest rates for many years and very low inflation are other factors fueling the confidence of consumers and entrepreneurs.
The inauguration of the new government may have instilled more courage in economic agents. Preserving and reinforcing these sentiments, however, depends on how the government deals with major national issues, starting with the structural crisis in public finances. The few signs left by the government of President Jair Bolsonaro on the pathways he intends to follow in the direction of the reforms the country needs are still weak. This delay can be detrimental to the economic environment, which until now was optimistic.
The result of the General Register of Employees and Unemployed (Caged) of the Special Secretariat for Social Security and Labor of the Ministry of the Economy in 2018 is the best since 2013, when the economy n & # It had not yet been touched by the disaster of Dilma's economic policy. Rousseff (2011-2016). This is also the first positive balance since 2014, when 420,600 formal jobs were created.
As noted by the Secretary of Labor of the Special Secretariat for Social Security and Labor, Bruno Dalcolmo, who resumed his growth after a sharp recession, as the country was facing between 2014 and early 2017, the Improvement of the labor market begins with informal employment. This fact has been recorded by the National Survey by Continuous Domicile Sample, conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and much more comprehensive than Caged. Now the formal market is also growing. But the recovery of real incomes remains slow. In December, the average starting salary was 0.21% higher than in the previous year.
There was no truckers strike at the end of May of last year, which interrupted the flow of goods, raw materials and equipment. Inputs and damaged production and consumption, the result of last year could have been better job creation.
Caged's result should also be positive in 2019 and perhaps higher than that of 2018. But even as it continues to grow, it will take some time to replenish the 2.9 million. formal jobs were destroyed by the recession.
Entrepreneurship, for its part, shows growing confidence. In January, the Industrial Confidence Index (Icei), measured by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), rose 0.9 percentage points from December and reached the highest value high (64.7 points) since June 2010. It is a sign that industrial leaders are more willing to invest and hire workers.
The Confidence in Trade Index (Icec), calculated by the National Confederation of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), also rose in January, its fifth highest monthly consecutive level to reach 122, 6 points.
Inflation, already low, could fall further. The 0.30% change in IBGE's broad national consumer price index (IPCA-15) is the lowest of the month since the start of the Real Plan in 1994 and has reduced the cumulative 12-month index to 3, 77% (in 2018 it was 3.86%). The government 's strong commitment to tackling the serious issues that need to be addressed urgently will help improve the scenario.
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