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The beginnings had been perfect, with regular rains and sunshine intervals. But the intense heat and drought of December had a significant impact on soybean production in western Paraná, one of the main poles of Brazilian production, resulting in losses of nearly 40%.
On Thursday (24), the Department of Economy The Rural Department of Agriculture confirmed what the market had already reported: after seven good consecutive harvests this summer, Paraná will experience a decline in 15% of soy production. In terms of productivity, the reduction is 12%. With this, the state should lose in Rio Grande do Sul the second place in the ranking of the country, led by Mato Grosso. In this cycle, gauchos must harvest 18.3 million tonnes, 1.6 million more than the Paraná. Mato Grosso plans to harvest 32.4 million tonnes
Deral initially estimated that Paraná would reach a crop of 19.5 million tonnes, currently reduced to 16.9 million tonnes. Given market prices, this means that the state will no longer generate a gross value of R 3 billion.
In the past two years, farmers in Paraná have hardly harvested soy in January. This time, the hot and dry climate accelerated the development and maturation of the plants. In Toledo, where 481,000 hectares were cultivated, more than 70% of the crop was harvested, which corresponds to 2325 kg per hectare, well below the expected production range, between 3,420 and 3,783 kg. The projected decline is 39%. Losses are expected to remain above 20% in Umuarama (25%), Campo Mourão (23%), Francisco Beltrão (22%) and Paranavaí (22%).
"The region of Toledo, near Lake Itaipu, has been heavily punished, we already have a figure very close to the reality of what will be the final volume of production.For this region, we expected a minimum of 1 , 7 million tonnes, but the harvest should be around 1.1 million, "says Edmar Gervasio, technician in Deral.
The planting season and topographic conditions of Paraná, however, are quite heterogeneous and have prevented widespread losses. For Ponta Grossa, for example, a productivity forecast of 3600 kg per hectare is maintained, that is to say in the range between 3550 and 3900.
In the case of maize corn, been grown south of the state, the weather damage was minimal compared to soybean. The estimated loss to date is 5%, which should give a production of 3.1 million tonnes, against 3.3 million originally planned. The main maize crop in Paraná is in winter, while more than 13 million tonnes are traditionally harvested.
Market
The confirmation of the damage caused by the climate in Paraná does not have the strength to move more significantly in the market. of the goods. According to the Safras & Mercado agency consultant, Luiz Fernando Gutierrez, the shrinkage of the Brazilian soybean crop of about 6.5 million tonnes was already expected.
What balances the balance, it is the recovery of the Argentine harvest, which recorded a fall of 20 million tons last year during the dry season. "In South America, compared to last year, we should have an even bigger crop, the sum gives a positive balance for this season.The stock price scenario of Chicago changes only if there is a drop above 10 million tonnes in Brazil and losses in Argentina as well. "Today's quotes focus on the trade war (between the United States and China)," said Gutierrez.
For Ana Luiza Lodi, an badyst at INTL FC Stone, the meteorological factors will be determining in the coming weeks. "Paraná is emerging from the most critical climate phase, but Brazil as a whole has many crops that will be planted later, such as in Matopiba, while in Argentina staff are also monitoring the weather. considers Brazil on the drought side and Argentina for the excess rain, "he said. With respect to oilseed prices, the dominant factor remains the trade dispute between the United States and China. "Quotations are very much about the trade war, stocks in the United States are very promising, and China is trying to reduce imports of soybeans as a whole." But if the South American harvest continues degrading, it could have an impact on prices, yes. "
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