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SÃO PAULO – Ibovespa is trading regularly on Tuesday, at a meeting during which most of the documents constituting the portfolio show a positive performance. Intense business news, foreign oil gains and the gloomy global stock markets are adding strength to the index. Around 14 hours, the Ibovespa was up 0.59% to 96,009 points, after reaching 1 at the end of the day. 37% at the best time of the day, with 96,751 points. The expected financial recovery for the index at the end of the trading session is just over R $ 14.4 billion, taking into account the R $ 6.8 billion traded up to the end of the trading session. now.
Several documents report an overall positive performance yesterday, Eletrobras ON (9.12%) and Eletrobras GNP (6.94%), responding to statements by the Secretary of the Ministry of Economy on the privatization and divestment, Salim Mattar, regarding the privatization program of the government
Mattar, promoted by Credit Suisse, said that the goal of the new president was to "keep only Petrobras, Banco do Brasil and Caixa "and small. As for Eletrobras, the secretary said that the government is still studying the possibilities. Comments also support Banco do Brasil ON (1.32%), Petrobras PN (2.14%) and Petrobras ON ("Petrobras ON"). 2.29%) – the latter two still benefit from oil gains this afternoon. Itaú PN (0.10%) and Bradesco PN (-0.62%) act in the opposite direction.
It should also be noted that Vale ON (3.49%) recovers a portion of the losses of 24.5%. % in the session of the previous day. Analysts say the shares are undergoing a natural adjustment movement as investors are still eager to announce the company's dam in Brumadinho (MG) and look for elements to calculate the fair value. paper price after the disaster.
Finally, CCR ON (4.97%) and Ecorodovias ON (4.62%) climbed following comments from the Governor of São Paulo, João Doria, stating that the processes of companies that already have rights over Highways will be renewed, and all roads remaining under the administration of the state government will be allocated to the private sector.
Doria panels also reinforce Sabesp ON (3.36%). According to the Value Governor stated in a reserved interview with market agents that he hoped that Interim Measure 868, which amends the legal framework of the sanitation sector, would be approved from here 60 to 90 days. .
On the negative side of Ibovespa, MRV ON (-2.28%) was the worst performing index of the time. RONO (-2.3%), Raia Drogasil ON (-3.23%) and Suzano ON (-1.22%) are also among the largest losses.
Exchange
With regard to risky badets abroad, the Brazilian real stands out among the major currencies of the world. The dollar quickly lost ground against the local currency and dropped to its lowest level in two weeks, reflecting the good performance of the Brazilian currency in a context of appreciation of commodities such as the US dollar. oil and iron ore
According to operators, The truce in the variable-income badets, after the heavy losses of the shares of Ibovespa and Vale as a result of the tragedy of Brumadinho (MG), gives a extra boost to the market. "Here in Brazil, the movement is a little stronger because of a" window of opportunity "that opened with the negative movement of the stock market yesterday," said the company's chief executive. operator of a São Paulo Stock Exchange company.
Around 2 pm, the commercial dollar fell 0.83 percent to R $ 3.7331 after touching the day's low at R $ 3.7261. The variation is much more pronounced than in other international markets. On a list of 33 world currencies, the real leads the best performances and the second place comes with the South Korean won.
The futures contract for the month of February yielded 0.89%, at R $ 3, 7280. Traders have pointed out that a greater amount of instability should affect the exchange rate this week due to the formation of the end-of-month Ptax rate, which serves as a benchmark for exchange rate derivatives.
For operator Cleber Alessie Machado Neto of H.Commcor, the actual showed more abrupt movements compared to the main pairs since the beginning of the year. "As we are more prominent, because of expectations for reforms, the real one has a more pronounced swing," says the expert. The context, he says, is wary of the global economic downturn, but of a more favorable Fed strategy, while investors are still waiting for the reform program ahead of Brazil.
Another favorable sign for the local market is that the break-up of Vale's waste dam in Brumadinho has not affected Brazilian bond issues, which repeat a recovery this year by taking advantage of the improvement emerging markets scenario. Latam begins Wednesday a series of talks with investors to issue a bond between 500 and 700 million dollars, said a source. In addition to Latam, Eldorado intends to visit the market earlier this year and the Treasury is also expected to issue a program.
In the external scenario, the Fed should keep the tone softer in its monetary policy decision. tomorrow For Rabobank's experts, the US central bank could even say it's gearing up for another year-end summit, but "this pause risks becoming the end of the cycle because of the risk of recession." in 2020. " [19659002] According to the Rabobank model, the risk of a recession in the United States next year is 69%. "In our opinion, this means that by the summer [no hemisfério norte, ou seja, no segundo semestre] the Fed will not be able to raise the interest rates of its monetary policy," they say in a note.
Investors are also following the new round of negotiations. between the United States and China, which should happen tomorrow with the arrival of Vice Premier Liu He in the United States. In addition, the UK Parliament will vote today on "Plan B" of the Brexit Agreement, after the rejection of a first draft at the beginning of the month.
Dollar's
interest relative to emerging currencies, including the Brazilian real, gives more room for the decline in future interest rate contracts in Brazil. While the US dollar is below the $ 3.75 mark, the DI from January 2021 goes from 7.20% at the last adjustment to 7.14% and the DI from January 2025 goes from 8.89% to 8%. , 82%.
"The dollar falls and favors future interest rates, which presently pose no threat indicating a short-term upside potential." The unused production capacity remains important and it is planned to maintain the Selic throughout the year.
While President Jair Bolsonaro is recovering from surgery and the government holds clues to the face of social security reform, the international scenario is gaining momentum and is affecting the exchange rate.
The focus is on the new round of US-China talks to be held tomorrow with the arrival of Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to the United States. In addition, the UK Parliament will vote today on "Plan B" of the Brexit Agreement, after a first draft was rejected earlier this month, and that The event attracts the attention of global investors.
Investors adjust their bets also with expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy decision and President Jerome Powell's interview. For the Callis Votorantim Bank Marcos investment strategist, the Fed is not expected to bring surprises, but there are signs that the US central bank's balance sheet may be slowing. "The Fed has recently changed its speech and is already very flexible, I do not see what it can add to monetary policy, but in terms of the size of its balance sheet, it has not yet was reported.
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