Around 100,000 points? February should be a decisive month for the stock market

RIO – The Brazilian Stock Exchange presents a series of recordings of scores. Last Thursday, Ibovespa, the main index of the stock market, exceeded 98,000 points at certain points in the trading session. And with the resumption of work in Congress this month of February, badysts expect a lot of pension reform. After all, there is very little time for the stock market to reach the 100,000 mark.

Analysts point out, however, that after the sharp rise in a short time in the face of the positive expectations of the new government, it is time to check the facts. By badogy, it is as if the investors had bought a property in the factory and were now waiting for the delivery of what had been agreed.

The big wait is what will be the text of the pension reform: whether the proposal will be cut off or not, if all sectors will be included and, most importantly, if the government will have the strength to get it back? ;approval. The attentions increase because of the resumption of the works of the legislature, this Friday.

– With the return of Congress, and if the government can show investors that it has sufficient base and strength to approve the reform, Ibovespa will have many conditions to reach the bar of 100,000 points in February – according to Filipe Villegas, badyst at Genial. – In addition, what can surprise positively and contribute to the rise of the stock market is the season of publication of the balance sheets of large companies, such as large retailers.

Another important point, badysts point out, is the improvement of the external scenario. Noting that interest rate increases in the United States will be less frequent and that the eventual agreement between China and the United States to end the trade war will also help to continue the stock market recovery.

– The rush of trade war has faded and Jerome Powell warned that interest rates in the United States could be close to the end to fuel emerging markets. This can also help the Brazilian stock market a lot – explains Rafael Antunes, partner of Inove Investimentos, based on the badysis of XP.

Foreigners still do not come back with force

However, the barrier of 100,000 points may be small, in the face of market expectations. While the national and external scenarios continue to show positive signs, some projections indicate that the Brazilian stock market will exceed 120,000 points by the end of the year.

– The most important sectors of the index, namely the financial sector and the consumer, give good indications at the beginning of the year. Because of the strength they exert on the Ibovespa, if they maintain the positive trend, they will make an important contribution to the stock exchange, which will reach the historic mark of 100,000 points – says Rodrigo Galindo, Managing Partner of Novus Capital.

According to Galindo, expectations are favorable and should contribute to further increases in the stock market.

– The flow of foreign investors investing in the stock market is still not high. When they start to be more robust and with the positive internal scenario, that is with the reforms sent and approved, it is possible that Ibovespa will reach 125,000 points in 2019.