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In recent months, signs of concern about the global economy have multiplied: badysts point to increasing risks of crisis on the horizon and international organizations have reduced their projections for global growth.
In January, the IMF International) revised its global growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.5% this year and from 3.7% to 3.6% in 2020. The World Bank has also recalibrated its estimate of world economic growth at 2.9
The climate of anxiety was visible in Davos, Switzerland, where political leaders and business leaders met last month for the Economic Forum world. A recent study by the Conference Board Research Group found that more than 800 business leaders consulted in various countries were primarily concerned about the possibility of a global recession.
But the world is moving he really towards a new economic crisis? [19659002] IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned Davos that after two years of strong expansion, the global economy was growing slower than expected and that risks were rising.
"This means that there is a recession" But the risk of a more pronounced decline in global growth has certainly increased, "he said.
According to IHS Markit, Sara Johnson, executive director of Global Economy, the danger of a global decline has increased, but the probability of a recession in 2019 is still low.
"We consider that the recent slowdown in growth is part of the normal business cycle. Johnson said Johnson at BBC News Brazil.
She points out that in the United States, the benefits of the end of the year 2017 year continues to fuel the growth and expansion of the year. US economy is one of the factors that prevent a global recession in the short term.
"But, of course, any expansion ends one day."
The world's largest economy reports its second-longest cycle of expansion, initiated in June 2009, but badysts point to risks badociated with rising interest rates and trade tensions , especially with China, recent upheaval of the financial market and economic impact of the partial shutdown of the federal government.
The tax cut helped revive the US economy in 2018, with growth of 2.9%. the impact of the measure tends to weaken gradually. The IMF expects an increase of 2.5% in 2019 and 1.8% the following year, a forecast unchanged from October.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the key rate four times last year. , the last of them in December, 0.25 percentage points, for the interval between 2.25% and 2.50%. High interest rates help control inflation, but they affect economic growth by encouraging savings and reducing consumption and investment in production.
President Donald Trump blamed recent increases for harming the country's economy. the Fed decided to maintain the current level of interest and indicated that it did not anticipate any new ones. increases. US inflation remains close to the 2% target a year and the labor market, another indicator of economic health, remains solid with 2.6 million jobs created in 2018 and a rate unemployment rate of 3.9%.
"One way to interpret (the dual option) is that they fear too much to raise interest rates and provoke a recession," economist Kathryn Dominguez, professor of economics and public policies at the university. from 1965 to Michigan and a researcher at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Trade tensions between the United States and China have also highlighted the trade tensions between the United States and China, the rise in tariffs affecting the rest of the world and having already led to a downward revision . in previous IMF World Economic Outlook released in October
If the two countries do not resolve the dispute, tariffs already imposed by the United States on a range of Chinese products could increase and 25%, leading to further retaliation by China. Besides fighting with China, the US government is also facing tensions with several other trading partners, with the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
China gives warning signals
The performance of the Chinese economy is also worrying. In January, China announced a 6.6% growth in 2018, its lowest rate since 1990. IMF forecasts are still down 6.2% this year and by 2020.
"I hope China continues to grow at a brisk pace this year, problems arise, including high debt levels, overcapacity in some heavy industries and real estate markets," notes Johnson.
"It is clear that the industrial sector is facing difficulties at the moment."
The Chinese government is planning stimulus measures, including tax cuts and investments in infrastructure.
"China responds to a large extent to the decision (of international organizations) to reduce global growth projections, and it is an important part of global growth."
The European economy. also faces risks that could affect the global economy, with difficulties to agree to exit the United Kingdom from the European Union (the Brexit) and the slowdown in the euro area, whose growth has 1.6% revised by IMF this year, down 0.3 point from forecast for October
Germany still adapts to new pollutant emissions rules for automobiles that have affected this industry. France has been raging in street protests for more than two months. And in Italy, "concerns about sovereign and financial risks have affected domestic demand," the IMF said.
Other Risks
Problems encountered in the United States, China, and Europe often have repercussions on markets like Brazil, but Dominguez says it's too early to calculate the possible impact of a more pronounced slowdown.
In the case of Brazil, Johnson notes that it is important to see what is happening with the reforms, such as the pension fund.
The IMF forecasts a 2.5% growth of the Brazilian economy this year, 0.1 point higher than the October forecast and a rate similar to that of 2.53% of the Focus report of the Central Bank, based on studies with consultants and financial institutions. The IMF forecast is 2.2% by 2020, compared to 2.2% previously.
Analysts also cite other concerns for the global economy, such as the high level of global debt and more polarized politics. country. But Dominguez says that the reductions in the global growth prospects of major international organizations are still modest.
"It is not impossible that many of these potential negative shocks will accumulate and lead to a more pronounced slowdown than is currently expected.There is certainly no consensus today for this to happen. will occur in 2019. "
The economist recalls that 2018 and especially 2017 have been very good years for the global economy. "Part of what we're seeing is just a slowdown over two very good years," says Dominguez.
"We may be back to normal and the normal is slower than in recent years to say that we are entering a global recession."
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