Proof of fire for Bolsonaro at the National Congress

With two such themes, each reveals a different government strategy. The security package aims to respond to a theme that mobilizes the current population and bears as a symbol the figure of ex-judge Sergio Moro, who enjoys great popularity. On the other hand, the most difficult and essential agenda for the future of the government is the pension reform. Experts say that without this, the state will not progress in the face of the immobility that the social security system imposes on the public accounts.

For economist Alexander Schwartsman, the urgent agenda for Brazil is essentially fiscal. "Public spending has been rising for more than 20 years, especially with regard to social security, we need to find a way to stabilize the public debt and the ceiling on the spending ceiling is not enough," he said. of an interview with the Cycle of Studies program. "Previdência has turned out to be the number one problem in Brazil and it's the challenge that I see the new government moving forward in reform during these first few months," the badyst says, criticizing the fact that there is still an ignorance on the subject. To meet the challenge, Bolsonaro introduced both measures early in the government, saying the Moro package would have a positive impact on public opinion, contributing to the more sensitive reform process. Winning the debate on the reform model that will be presented, the director general will have to have operators in the legislative to advance his program. Rodrigo Maia (DEM), re-elected President of the Chamber, signed a pledge for pension reform and set up a 60-day processing schedule at Casa Baixa, and another 60 at Casa Alta. In the Senate, the challenge is even greater faced with the inexperience of the new president, Davi Alcolumbre (DEM), who, albeit an ally, does not know, like Maia, the obstacles of the legislature.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro will have to overcome the pressures of opposition. , public opinion, social networks and even sectors such as the military, which reject the more liberal proposal advocated by Paulo Guedes. To overcome the first hurdles in the House, Prime Minister Vitor Hugo (PSL-GO) has already struggled, as the concentration of power in the top government prevents the parliamentarian from negotiating congressional support. . On the other hand, the BMD's approach to the Senate, with the likely choice of Senator Fernando Bezerra Coelho as leader, makes life easier for Plbadto.

Son of the President, Federal Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PSL-SP) week, that the security agenda will give the House plenary's thermometer before the vote of the retirement pension. "Let's see how each parliamentarian will behave and you can then send a more sensitive subject like reform," he is questioned. However, Rodrigo Maia claimed that the anti-crime program was an affair after Social Security, entering into shock with Eduardo Bolsonaro's vision.

Rogério Marinho, the Special Secretary for Social Security and Labor, however, stated that the Civil Chamber would be responsible for deciding whether the Ministry of Justice's anticrime package will be sent to Congress as part of the discussion on the reform of pensions. "These are different business and it is clear that the Civil House, which has the prerogative and control of this situation with the National Congress, will know, listening to the ministries, adopt the right attitude and establish the strategy" , is it questioned

From political science, Carlos Ranulfo and Rudá Ricci report errors in the approval strategy of these two proposals. "The priority is social security, but why did Moro put the project on corruption?" It is well known that the Congress does not address two major projects at the same time.If this is a tactic, then Is bad because it creates confusion, "he says. Rannulf. With the Chamber's wide fragmentation, with 30 acronyms, support negotiations without a strong coalition require the government to get votes in retail outlets, convincing parliamentarians one by one, which is more expensive.

The internment of President Bolsonaro generated another negative factor for the conduct of the process and actors such as Vice President Hamilton Mourão would help unlock, but apparently, there is no climate . "Bolsonaro is completely paralyzed, we have not known for how long, and Mourão has not taken office.This stalemate gives an idea of ​​the degree of mistrust that prevails within the leadership of the government," said Carlos Ranulfo. In addition, you have the sons of the president, the ministers Damares Alves (Family) and Ricardo Vélez Rodrigues (Education) giving controversial statements, creating noises in the

Ranulfo reports however that a rapprochement with the governors, like the former President Lula (PT) in 2003, would facilitate the approval of the pension reform. The Ministry of Economy even met with state officials on the 20th. "The state governments are in a dramatic situation and this may be important to boost the vote of the magistrates," he said. declared. The leader of the PPS in the House, Daniel Coelho (EP), believes that President Bolsonaro can calibrate the two proposals with the help of social networks, interacting with the population, as he had done during the campaign election. "The debate on security has been overcome in an absurd way, now the debate on social security is much more difficult and Bolsonaro must lead the process, organize the defense with his constituents," said Coelho.

MPP deputy André de Paula (1965) PE), recognizes that it is now difficult to deal with the government without the participation of President Bolsonaro. "The minister or the leader can only be strong when the president wants it, and today we do not know who the interlocutors are," he said. "For the proposals to advance, it will require the commitment of the ministers of the political sphere, the Civil Chamber and the secretariat of the government, with Onyx Lorenzoni and General Santos Cruz," said André, who believes that it is possible to treat both proposals in parallel in the House, because they deal with different subjects.