Crisis in Venezuela: What is changing with the support of 42 countries to self-proclaimed President Juan Guaido | World

The size of the measure to keep the Venezuelan president in power quickly became clear: the same day, the United States announced that they recognized Guaidó as interim president. In all, 42 countries have already declared support, including Brazil.

The isolation of Maduro was accentuated last Monday, nearly two dozen countries of the European Union also recognizing Guaidó, including Germany, France and Spain. The same thing happened with most Latin American members of the Lima group, with the exception of Mexico.

The Maduro government, backed by 14 nations (including Russia and China), views the Guaidó movements as a coup attempt by the US-led state. The goal, the Chavanist leader explains, would be to overthrow a "legitimate occupier" of power. Guaidó and the countries that support him, on the other hand, say that Venezuela has not elected elected in a fair and constitutional process.

The clash was accompanied by protests in Venezuela against Maduro and in his favor.

But what are the concrete effects of the self-proclamation of Guaidó, president of the National Assembly of Venezuela, and growing international support?

Symbolic recognition x real effects

"(Guaidó) does not have effective control (in Venezuela), so it is more symbolic recognition than real", explains Carlos Malamud, researcher in Latin America in the Real Instituto Elcano.

The expert believes that amparo is a form of pressure on the part of the international community to get Maduro away from the presidency and to call new elections. "Guaidó is recognized (president) with the certainty that he can call elections, but governments know the limits."

One thing is the symbolic, merely rhetorical aspect of supporting a "figure that can promote transition". Another, very different, is to "cut ties with those who have power," says Malamud.

But support for Guaido has already had important practical consequences in some countries, notably the United States. Maduro ordered to close all embbadies and consulates and to return the entire Venezuelan diplomatic corps.

The United States, in turn, entrusted Guaidó with the authority over Venezuela's official accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and other banks backed by US funds. They also announced sanctions against the Venezuelan national oil company PDVSA. According to the White House's national security advisor, John Bolton, such a move could block $ 7 billion in badets and avoid $ 11 billion in profits next year.

For Temir Porras, Hugo Chávez's foreign policy adviser and collaborator with Nicolás Maduro when he was Chancellor, this situation is "a scandal from the point of view of international law".

"The Treasury Department takes control of Venezuela's accounts abroad and unilaterally decides that the badets of the country belong to the government of Juan Guaidó.This is a robbery", said Porras, who left public life in 2013 and is now a professor of political science at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris, France.

Porras does not deny the "catastrophic" state of the Venezuelan economy and believes that the country's situation is "unsustainable". Nevertheless, he claims that the international recognition given to Guaidó is "absolute nonsense".

"In Spain, there was a constitutional crisis – what would have happened if Belgium had recognized Puigdemont?", Asks Porras, referring to the former president of the Catalan government, who decreed the 39, independence of Catalonia and left for Belgium. so as not to have to answer in Spanish courts.

In addition to measures taken by the United States, Colombia has announced its intention to ban more than 200 people from entering the country because they "collaborate with the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro".

Meanwhile, Guaidó has named "representatives of Venezuela" in the United States, Canada and several Latin American countries, including Argentina and Chile. The decision was greeted with some confusion, as the responsibilities of these representatives and the official ambbadadors of Venezuela appointed by the government of Nicolás Maduro are unclear.

Diplomats of Maduro x representatives of Guaidó

In Spain, several media have suggested that the representative of Guaido in the region, who has not yet been appointed, would not seek to occupy the post of Ambbadador, but would act as a political envoy. In this way, he could divide the space with the current Venezuelan ambbadador.

Thus, Spain would avoid the risk of expulsion of the Spanish ambbadador to Venezuela by Maduro, a decision that would make difficult the thousands of Spaniards living in the country from South America.

On the other hand, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza said in a recent interview that the center of Caracas was not in Europe, not even in Latin America, but in the United States. United. "From there, the coup d'etat is conducted, from there, they subordinate the countries of Latin America, Europe."

"I think that there is an ambiguity in the governments of Europe, who claim to recognize one of them but continue to maintain relations with each other," he said. -he adds. "We have always paid particular attention to the (living) European communities of Venezuela and we will continue to do so."

Already in the United States, the Venezuelan Embbady remains closed. The Guaidó representative does not have access to the building.

According to Sandra Borda, a Colombian political badyst and professor at the University of the Andes, the international recognition given to Guaidó is above all a "political movement aimed at pushing for a transition" in Venezuela. "If this does not translate into social pressure for the fall of the regime, it will not mean anything," he added.

The Colombian-based political scientist Jorge Galindo shares the same point of view. "As in any state, the monopoly of violence is in the hands of the army." (International) recognition is only useful if the opposition is able to use it for to convince the pragmatists within the regime. "

With the arrival of Chavez in power following the vote in 1998, the armed forces had infiltrated in all cases the Venezuelan state. But the price of Chavez's support was high. In addition to the allocation of state offices, Chavismo has given Allied commanders generous spaces in various sectors of Venezuela's economy, whether legal or not.

Even with the increasing supply and external support of his movement, Guaidó witnessed sporadic bouts of dissent in the barracks, but still insufficient to permanently remove support from the armed forces that keep Nicolas Maduro in power – while the country is almost bankrupt

Proponents of Guaidó argue, for example, that the Venezuelan presidential elections of May 2018 were fraudulent, as they would not have been pluralistic and would have been unjust. have not respected democratic principles. The opposition-controlled National Assembly believes that Maduro is usurping power, having been elected with votes not recognized by the United States, the European Union and many other countries.

For Temir Porras, former adviser to Chávez and Maduro, the fundamental question is that in Venezuela, "there is no political agreement on democratic coexistence". "In 2014, the Guaidó party no longer recognized Maduro as a legitimate president," said Porras, for whom Guaidó's international recognition will not end political polarization in Venezuela.

"If the political force of Guaidó takes power, who will be the opposition? Who will sit in the National Assembly?", He asks. "The only way out, the only reasonable solution to the political problem in Venezuela is an internal political agreement."