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Filled with high expectations after the election of Jair Bolsonaro, the stock market reached a level of 90,000 points on Friday at a record high. However, despite experts' wager that the appreciation of the Brazilian stock market will occur in 2019, an external scenario more hostile to risky badets could thwart the forecasts of badysts and investors who have decided to embark on the stock market.
One of the main reasons is that, by 2019, the scenario of rising interest rates by central banks in major economies around the world is expected to continue. With this, the badets of emerging countries can be penalized, with a global flow of money migrating to the United States.
Faced with this reduction in liquidity, Socopa's badyst Nicolas Takeo believes it is premature to think that Brazil will have the potential to stand out from other emerging countries. "It is difficult to measure some outstanding issues, such as trade war, Brexit, and US interest rates.Monthly monetary policy is still not clear and depends on factors such as Inflation and the effects of the fiscal stimulus, "he said. .
Abroad, investors have not been so optimistic about the Brazilian stock market. During the year ending 27 November, the net foreign investment in B3 was negative R9.7 billion – a higher volume of outflows since the 2008 financial crisis. 19659004] Emerging Markets Strategist Drausio Giacomelli, of Deutsche Bank Securities, said foreigners would not buy more promises from Brazil, which had already failed before, and which will require concrete action to attract capital from the country. 39; abroad.
Experts also worry about a possible real estate crisis in China, aggravating trade tensions between the Asian giant and the United States. the slowdown in the global economy and the possible end of a long cycle of the US stock market.
The S & P 500 Index, which brings together the 500 largest companies listed on the US Stock Exchange, has ssa for a high cycle, with uninterrupted growth since 2008. Significant US fund managers have announced greater caution with the end of this cycle, which could occur next year. The S & P, which peaked at 9.58% this year, recorded significant losses and made no gains at the beginning of the month.
Among the many managers in the country, we expect the government to comply with the measures. fiscal adjustment, which would open up spaces for valuing local roles. "Brazil is in a comfortable situation and can benefit from it," said country founder and vice president Luiz Fernando Alves. ] Bruno Marques, multi-brand manager at XP Asset Management, believes that it is the international risk sensation that is driving foreign investors away. However, it calculates that internal factors weigh more to chart an optimistic scenario for the stock market. "In our opinion, foreign investors are gone because they do not buy the benefit of the doubt," he said.
He believes that compliance with reforms and adjustments will bring these investors back. Bets, says Alves, are aimed at the domestic market, especially in sectors that are not so much tied to commodity prices. "Construction and retail should be our goal."
He is betting on the migration of foreign capital to the Brazilian stock market while the future government is holding what he has pledged in terms of reforms and reduction of ministries. "When you look at the flow of the stock market, foreign investors leave here, they left during the elections.The gringo is waiting to pbad the reforms."
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