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Do Infomoney – A number of factors may affect the results of the Brazilian Stock Exchange: the settlement of the trade dispute between China and the United States, the evolution of the economies of the two countries, the commodity prices,
But for the moment, nothing is as important as the advancement of social security reform, according to Luiz Carlos Mendonça de Barros, former minister, former president of the BNDES and today Chairman of the board of the Chinese truck company Foton in Brazil.
"It is clear that the United States and China are important, but social welfare is much more important today.This is a very serious problem that, if, on the other hand, It will allow Brazil to reach another level, it can guarantee three to four years of economic growth, which other emerging countries do not have on the horizon, "he said.
Without reform, the stock market has already grown significantly. , according to Mendonça de Barros. And investors need reasons to justify the purchase and sale, so they cite the external scenario and other factors. "But these are excuses, because what matters is the reform," he said.
He recalled that the Brazilian economy was at a "favorable point" of the cycle, with clean external accounts, low interest rates and controlled inflation. "There has been no steady growth in elections and the problem of social security."
$ 1 trillion in the head
When the project of a possible social security reform that would be introduced by the government became last Monday (4), investors have started to work with an ideal number, said Mendonça de Barros: the reform could generate a saving of about 1 trillion rubles in ten years. "This figure has become the market benchmark."
According to Mendonça de Barros, this would be the grade 10 of the reform. But for him, the economy will be smaller, about R $ 700 billion, because it is expected that concessions being negotiated to approve the text. That is, he would get a 7th grade. "The 7th year is good, but we have to wait to see how the investors will react," he says. "Aliens are waiting for this definition to allow them to place money here."
Until there is a definition, which should take months, the stock market should continue to oscillate. "I think that will happen when respected badysts say that the total economy that can flow from reform will solve the problem."
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