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Carbon emissions around the world are expected to reach their highest level by 2018 – according to researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the Global Carbon Project.
A projected increase of over 2% is attributable to growth in the use of coal for the second consecutive year and to sustained growth in the use of oil and gas.
- The new data for 2018, published Thursday (6) simultaneously in the periodicals "Nature", "Earth Science Science" and "Environmental Research Letters," show that global emissions from fossil fuel combustion are expected to reach 37, 1 billion tons of CO2 by 2018.
CO2 emissions increased for the second year in a row after three years of little or no growth from 2014 to 2016. The increase this year is estimated at 2.7%. In 2017, it was 1.6%.
The news is a new call for action launched by governments at the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP 24) held in Katowice, Poland this week.
In 2018, the main task of COP 24 will be to establish the "regulation" of the Paris Agreement, ratified in 2015 and in which 195 countries have pledged to limit global warming to 2 ° C here the end of the century.
The largest emitters of gas of the year
The ten largest emitters in 2018 are China, the United States, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, Saudi Arabia , South Korea and or Canada. The EU as a whole country region ranks third. Lead Researcher Corinne Le Quéré, Director of the Tyndall Climate Change Research Center and EBU Climate Change Policy and Science Professor, said, "We are once again seeing strong growth in global CO2 emissions. . "
emissions must reach their maximum and decrease rapidly to cope with climate change. With the increase in emissions this year, it seems that the peak is not yet visible. "
- " To limit global warming for the 1.5 ° C goal of the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions are expected to decrease by 50% by 2030
- According to UN, global temperatures could increase by five degrees by the end of the century reach about zero by 2050. We are far from that and much remains to be done, because if countries respect the commitments they have already made, we are about to see a global warming of 3 ° C, "he said.
" This year we saw how climate change could already amplify the effects heat waves in the world. California's forest fires are just a snapshot of the growing impacts we face if we do not reduce emissions, "added Le Quéré.
What Stimulates the Rise
L & # 39; This year's emissions increase is largely due to strong growth in the use of coal, but coal remains below its historic peak of 2013. The use of coal could soon exceed that peak of 2013 if current growth continues
Oil use is growing strongly in most regions, resulting in increased emissions from cars and trucks, including in the United States and Europe. Thefts have also contributed to the increase in oil.The use of gas has hardly diminished in recent years.
The Quere said: "Growing global demand for energy is overcoming decarbonisation. This must change rapidly to cope with climate change. We need strong political and economic support for the rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies to reduce emissions in the energy and transport, building and industry sectors. "
"Energy trends are changing rapidly, with the use of coal falling in many parts of the world and still below its 2013 level, and an explosion of wind and solar energy, but while the energy renewable "Corinne Le Quéré, director of Tyndall Climate Change Research Center and professor of climate change policy at UEA
Glen Peters, director of research at The International Center for Climate Research of CICERO in Oslo, which conducted the emissions badysis, said: "The global commitments made in Paris in 2015 to reduce emissions are still not accompanied s d & # 39; proportionate actions. "
CO2 emissions from deforestation and other human activities generated an additional 5 billion tonnes of CO2 this year, bringing total CO2 emissions to 41.5 billion tonnes. Global trends in these areas are unclear due to the large uncertainties in the data.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere are expected to increase by about 2.3 parts per million on average by 2018 due to the persistence of CO2 emissions and to achieve about 407 parts per million during the year. . That's 45% above pre-industrial levels. The increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is the main cause of climate change.
In the face of increasing global emissions, 19 countries saw their emissions decrease and their economies grow. Aruba, Barbados, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Greenland, Iceland, Ireland, Malta, Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago, United Kingdom, Uzbekistan and United States have reduced their emissions over the last decade (2008- 2017).
The deployment of renewable energies in the world is accelerating exponentially. Electricity production has increased on average by 15% per year over the last decade. But this has not been enough to offset the growth of fossil energy because renewable energies are growing. However, it changes quickly.
Christiana Figueres, leader of the Mission 2020 campaign group and lead author of the Nature Commentary, said: "Global CO2 emissions are expected to begin to decline from 2020 if we want to meet the temperature targets of the year. Paris agreement, but we have achieved things that seemed unimaginable just a decade ago. "
" Exponential progress in key solutions is occurring and on the path to replacing fossil fuels 80% in a decade and today, more than half of the new production capacity is renewable.Before 2015, many thought that the Paris Agreement was impossible, but thousands of people and institutions have made the transition is a reality, and so is the decarbonisation of the economy, among other benefits, the search for clean air, employment and energy independence. pides youth, civil society, business, investors, cities and states are leading the way to zero net emission of & # 39; 2050, "he said.
Country Comparison
Almost every country has contributed to the increase in emissions.
Almost all countries contributed to the increase in emissions. emissions or reductions slower than expected.
China's emissions represent 27% of the world total. They increased by about 4.7% in 2018 and reached a new record. Emissions growth is related to construction activity and economic growth, which can be partly explained by temporary growth in stimulated credit. Energy from renewable sources increases by 25% annually, but from a low base.
- Emissions in the United States represent 15% of the world total and appear to have increased by about 2.5% in 2018 after several years decline. This new increase is due to strong growth in oil use of about 1.4%, badociated with an increase in car travel, and gasoline of about 7.6%. Emissions resulting from the use of coal appear to have decreased by about 2.1% in 2018, with coal switching primarily to gas and, more recently, renewables.
European Union emissions account for 10% of global emissions and a slight decrease of about -0.7% is projected, well below the 2% annual declines recorded over the past year. period from 2014 to 2014. Estimated decline in the use of coal and gas due to the growth of renewable energy was partially offset by an increase in the use of oil. The amount of fuel used for road transport and flights has increased by around 4% in the EU. In general, EU emissions remain close to 2014 levels or higher than 2014 levels.
India's emissions, which accounted for 7% of the world total, continued to grow about 6.3%, the economy is growing. Wind and solar energy is growing rapidly, but from a weak base.
Emissions to the rest of the world, the remaining 42% of global emissions, are expected to increase by about 1.8% this year. The five countries that contribute most to the growth of the rest of global emissions over the past decade are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Iraq and South Korea.
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