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By Fernando Brito, Tijolaço – The coordinator of the IBRE Observatory of Fiscal Policy Foundation Getúlio Vargas, Manoel Pires, today published a study showing the impact of recession policy applied since 2015 on the accounts
Estimates of pre-retirement pensions before the recession "indicated that pensions would stabilize at 6.86% of GDP in 2021". Now, the projections, due to unemployment and the loss of value of the wage bill of formal employment – which it covers – are at 5.76% of gross domestic product.
A lower percentage of GDP, significantly lower than the country would have reasonable growth rates.
Since social security expenditure does not decrease with the crisis, it tends to represent a larger share of economic activity that does not increase in the same proportion, social security expenditure, which would have reached 7.98% of GDP in 2021 in 2014, were revised to 8.76% of GDP for that year.
The decline in revenues and the increased weight of expenditures have therefore raised deficit forecasts. which would remain at 1.12% of gross domestic product, according to estimates, in two years, reaching a level close to 3.06% of GDP currently expected by 2021.
This means that the "hole" this account will have , within two years, a
It is obvious that the biggest enemy of social security accounts are not those who surrender to the condition of pensioners, who must see their way increased and made difficult with the reform to lead, but recessive policies, which oppose formal employment (as the "yellow-green wallet") and induce unemployment.
With economic growth, the study indicates "that it was possible to reform as in the past, each government had made an adjustment of the system".
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