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The rupture of the Vale dam at Brumadinho (MG) has already caused financial damage to the miner, but the most profound impact will be on the image of society, both to attract investment and for good market professionals, according to badysts.
The tragedy will leave a warning on the situation of Vale's dams and the need to invest in technology, as well as on issues regarding the quality of the company's risk management, experts say .
In the international scenario, there is a risk of contamination of the Brazilian mining market as a whole, as it happened a little more than three years after the disaster of Mariana (MG).
According to Pedro Galdi, an badyst at Mirae Corretora, foreign pressure will force the government to revise the legislation, which can generate costs with technological advances for the sector as a whole.
"The mining risk is getting bigger, it will lead companies to change technology Today, there is a dry technology, no need to build a dam, companies will have to spend money You'll need to know how to do that, and it's a major expense. "Vale is not the only one to have a dam."
André Perfeito, an economist at Necton, states that the degree of Government involvement in the improvement of control systems will be observed by the market in the coming months and will have a direct influence on the value of Vale's shares.
Friday (25), in reaction to the first news of the tragedy, Vale's ADRs traded in New York closed down 8%. Due to these holidays, the São Paulo stock exchange did not work and the first reflections of the market on the fall of the dam will be published only Monday in Brazil (28).
"There will be a fall from the beginning, but the continuity or not of the fall will have much to do with the prospect of what the government wants to solve this problem," said Perfect
Saturday (26) who could lower Vale's rating in several stages due to the financial implications of the disaster.
To date, the company has already received three requests to block amounts from its accounts.
On Sunday (27), the Justice of Minas Gerais decided to block another amount of R $ 5 billion from Vale in order to guarantee the badistance to the victims. On Saturday, the prosecution requested an additional R $ 5 billion to repair the environmental damage. On the same day, the Attorney General of Minas Gerais filed a request for one billion pesos to help the victims, bringing the total to 11 billion pesos.
Ibama has already imposed a fine of 250 million pesos, In practice, these are figures that badysts do not consider dramatic for a company whose market value reaches nearly 300 billion R $.
"This is not a figure that does a lot of harm to the company, but a punch in the belly," says Raphael Figueredo of Eleven Financial.
From the point of view of production and cash, Galdi calculates. "The small bean mine represents in the production of the company.In cash, the company is well defined."
Attempted attempt, Vale said understand that "the judicial barrages are not necessary because it will not be exempted from the obligation to provide emergency services to the population and to pay him reparations. "
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According to César Caselani, professor of finance at the FGV (Getulio Vargas Foundation), "negligence has been overshadowed" and the company must be "fully revised". it lacks risk management and process control.
"It is absurd to have facilities, including administrative facilities, on the way to the dam, it is not safe to be a Vale employee, how many people will want to work at Vale's next selection of trainees? What is the reliability of a Vale statement that dams are safe after that? ", he said.
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