ANALYSIS-The Bolsonaro Campaign Model Limits Voting Capital Increase

Images of pre-PSL presidential candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, hailed under cries of "myth" and videos of the presidential candidate speaking to the voter during daily acts, such as a visit to the barber, predominate in the army reserve profiles in social networks, in what has already been consecrated as a mark of his pre-campaign strategy.

This model, which focuses on social networks, where the number of supporters of Bolsonaro reaches the million dollar mark, and an anti-establishment speech often full of polemics have borne fruit in Bolsonaro in Intentional searches vote for the October elections, even though he and his allies question the credibility of the withdrawals, while extolling the MP's performance.

Bolsonaro conducts polls in the scenarios without former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, though approaching 20 percent of the voters' preference, but experts polled by Reuters point out that the reserve captain of the polls The Army will have a challenge to develop its riding when the game begins in earnest.

"I see it as a good strategy to maintain equity, but it's hard to say that it's the right strategy to increase capital, it's already more difficult," he said. told Reuters the political scientist Inser Carlos Melo. 659006] "Every candidate wants to broaden his political spectrum, and then he has to soften his statements a little bit without losing the support he's got.Bolsonaro made a number of accusations about this: at the time of This month's event, the Union of Sugarcane Industry (Unica) of São Paulo an apparent adjustment in its proposal to release the arming of the population, declaring that he "would not throw up arms and that everyone would take his", and that the size would be given with criteria for "citizens of good", based on

The deputy, who is 63 years old and present as an outsider in politics, although he is in his seventh term as a federal parliamentarian, has also sought to mitigate the statements made in the past that led to

In one of these statements, Bolsonaro says that he had four sons, but he gave "a weakening" and the fifth me once he had a daughter. Since then he has published recent videos on the side.

In a speech to Unica, Bolsonaro also defended respect for the Constitution, further mitigating a position of his past when he publicly defended the closure of Congress at the same time as it was being held. he criticized the "politically correct", the deputy also took advantage of the event of the sugar and alcohol sector to recognize that he sometimes exaggerates in the games and therefore he is defended before the Court Federal (STF)

CHALLENGE

For the expert in political marketing and professor of ESPM Victor Trujillo, Bolsonaro's current strategy is correct for the current pre-campaign moment, but he will have to change when the election campaign begins.

"The big question to be made is that he will be able to extend to the rest of the electorate, get out of this restricted profile, that profile that he himself delimited." His speech is self-limiting, said Trujillo, pointing out that Bolsonaro "

" We will draw a parallel with Formula 1. The polls now show only who will start in pole position. "The campaign, ie the race it -even. has not started yet. For the moment, research shows only the starting grid … Even all cars, all candidates, are placed on the grid, "said

Bolsonaro has sorted the public events with other candidates to the presidential. For example, it was not the presidential Sabbath organized by the Folha di S.Paulo, the UOL portal and the SBT, but events organized by sector entities, such as agribusiness.

For Frederico D'Ávila, one of the directors of the Brazilian Rural Society and also one of the coordinators of the Bolsonaro campaign, more focused on agribusiness, l & rsquo; One of the main differentials of the PSL candidate is precisely not to have the traditional structure of the anti-system campaign

"We see a lot of popular appeal, and if you go by the logic, it is the logic that the current system no longer works and went bankrupt, and the candidate who has nothing that ever elected – De Ávila told Reuters by phone

The poll CNI / Ibope for the presidential race released Thursday pointed out the deputy back in the

The pre-candidate of the PSL, however, is tied in the first place with the former president Fernando Collor de Mello, whose party has given up to throw him to the Plbadto, in rejection With 32% – Lula 31%

The rejection of a candidate is an indi this important because it highlights the difficulty of a certain name to increase the number of supporters.

MP Major Olympus (PSL) -SP), coordinator of the Bolsonaro campaign in Sao Paulo, said that there would be no change in the tone that he adopted for expand the support base.

"We will not do plastic surgery in Bolsonaro, there is no peace and love of Bolsonaro," said the deputy, PSL's pre-candidate at the PSL . Senate

Major Olympus stated that the rejection recorded in Bolsonaro does not worry and will be reduced from the moment people get to know their proposals and also they are refuted information that he considers as false compared to the pre-candidate disclosed one of the national coordinators of the Bolsonaro campaign, MP Onyx Lorenzoni (DEM-RS), said the strong performance of the candidate and his allies in social networks will help to show the truth about it and to challenge opponents.

Former governor Geraldo Alckmin, pre-PSDB candidate, and former minister Marina Silva, president of the network, recently used social networks to criticize Bolsonaro's initiatives.

"It is understandable that they are trying to attack the research leader thinking that it might work, but there is a problem of communication with the company."