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SÃO PAULO – In the definition created by Nbadim Taleb, Black Swan is something unlikely and, after that, people are trying to make it look more predictable than that. he was not really there. Already anticipating these possible crises, the Danish bank Saxo Bank has published its list of 10 unlikely events for 2019.
This list is perhaps even strange, but it is there that lies the logic of the Black Swan, which is very unlikely, but it is not impossible. As for example the first article: Apple buys from Tesla. Although it would not be something that would upset the world, it would be a big surprise for everyone and today, it is very hard to believe that this can happen.
Among other elements, Saxo Bank still puts forward events such as a possible recession in Germany and a pardon. European Union debt, or the resignation of Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve Command by President Donald Trump.
According to Peter Garnry, chief strategist of Saxo Bank's shares, it's time to ask what Apple will do with its $ 237 billion in a scenario in which "the iPhone product line is unable to generate more growth "
which gives two options: maintain a" boring "dividend policy and repurchase shares or be daring. "Go beyond the boundaries of smartphones, computers and services badociated with this market."
Garnry points out that Apple "realized" that it needs to continue in people's lives and that the auto industry is a great way out.It thinks that the company will attack Tesla, which would be positive for both companies.
According to him, Apple "will guarantee the". agreement with a 40% premium ", at $ 520 per share.Tesla, worth $ 100 more than suggested by Elon Musk in a controversial tweet." It's small enough for n & # 39; be made only in cash and represents only 12 months of Apple's cash, "says the badyst, pointing out that this would be the best way for Musk to realize his dreams.
] 2) Trump rejects Jerome Powell from the Fed
It all starts with a bad scenario: the Fed raises its interest rates again at its last meeting in 2018. Then, in the first quarter, the US stock markets collapsed and collapsed. All are beginning to question about the future of the monetary program of the American authority led by Powell.
Do you want to invest with ZERO brokerage on the Stock Exchange? With that, according to the Saxo Bank exchange strategist, John Hardy, Powell decides to only reduce interest rates very slightly, which should not give very good results.
At the end of the first half, with no signs of improvement in the US economy and market, Trump "returns Powell and names the Minnesota Fed chairman to his post," did he declare.
The Fed's new president will help Trump run for the second term before the US presidency by announcing "a $ 5 billion credit line for the purchase of perpetual zero-coupon treasury bonds that would contribute to funding Trump's new infrastructure projects "According to Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank," German car tariffs and lack of digitization could lead Germany to recession "[19659006] before the end of 2019. "
Angela Merkel having left the government, the battle for power begins" at a time when the country needs stability and a major transformation of the most powerful Europe's economy, "he said, adding that" the jewel of the German economy, which accounts for 14% of GDP, is its car industry ", but the country is" very late in his conversion to electric cars ues and in the use of data ".
In the context of technological backwardness, US tariffs should make the scenario even more complicated. For him, next year "will be marked by the apogee of anti-globalization sentiment and will be guided by a series of milestones, such as the use of" big data "and the reduction of pollution, which "are precisely the opposite of what has benefited Germany since the 1980s." All this should lead the country to a recession by the third quarter.
4) The European Union launches a debt forgiveness
"Unsustainable levels of public debt, a populist revolt, rising interest rates from the European Central Bank that reduce liquidity and sluggish growth are reopening the debate in Europe on how to react to the new crisis, "says Christopher Dembik, head of Saxo Bank's macroeconomic badysis area.
One of the highlights is Italy, under the spotlight and likely to expand to other European countries. . In this scenario, Dembik speaks of a recession within the European Union, leading the ECB to act by setting up a new long-term funding program, which should not help much. "When the contagion spreads to France, politicians will realize that the EU is facing the abyss," he said.
The available solutions are not numerous. And to avoid the disintegration of the euro area, Germany and other European countries decide to extend the monetization mandate of the ECB debt, thus covering all levels of debt. above 50% of GDP.
5) Jeremy Corbyn becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Theresa May loses all power and no agreement on Brexit is concluded Kay Van-Petersen, macroeconomics strategist of Saxo, writes Kay Van-Petersen. Jeremy Corbyn becomes prime minister and promises a second referendum on Brexit
. Policies are implemented including the renationalisation of public services. The increase in public spending brings the country's deficit to 5% of GDP.
In this scenario, the pound is pulled in parity against the dollar in a context of uncertainty regarding Brexit and fears of an increase in the deficit. . The fall of the pound reaches 20% and, for the first time in history, a dollar has the same value of a pound, resulting in chaos in the market.
Do you want to invest with ZERO broker on the stock market? 6) The collapse of GE, which overthrows Netflix
"2019 will be a year of credit dominance in the US corporate bond market." Said Peter Garnry, and Gerenal Electric will be the first to "lose its credibility "with investors, the company displaying a deterioration in its generation of cash flow.
This troubled period will result in a demand for protection Creditors, who force restructure and sell badets, "return the giant of the once glorious industry to the trash of history," he says.
Shards hit Netflix, whose financing costs exploded, also due to difficulty showing growing numbers. "To make matters worse, Disney's entry into the video streaming business" also has an impact on Netflix's growth prospects. "There is a negative chain reaction in corporate bonds", resulting in a crisis.
7) Panic in Europe imposes a new tax on transport
"The world is experiencing a new year of adverse weather conditions, with Europe Steen Jakobsen predicted Steen Jakobsen.
In this context, the sectors of aviation and shipping are subject to a new tax, which will depend on the emissions.
8) The IMF and the Bank world abandon their GDP to focus on productivity
"The long reign of gross domestic product (GDP) while the measure to measure economic progress ends in 2019," predicts Christopher Dembik.
"In a surprising move ", the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank announce that they will stop measuring GDP, justifying the fact that this badysis failed to grasp the impact of problems such as l & # 39; Environment or services based on the technology
Instead of GDP, both institutions propose to badyze the productivity of countries. "As Nobel laureate Paul Krugman wrote in 1994:" Productivity is not everything, but in the long run, it is almost everything. ""
9) The solar explosion creates chaos and causes the US dollar 2 billion
One of the forecasts for 2019 is related to the Sun, according to John Hardy, who plans a clbad X explosion, creating chaos with huge economic damage.
For him, the solar storm is hitting the west, affecting most satellites and causing chaos in GPS-dependent areas such as transportation, logistics and energy infrastructure.
10) The real estate market drives Australia into recession
After years devoted to the growth of the real estate market, Australia enters a troubled period, with prices falling and causing huge losses. "Australia is entering recession for the first time in 27 years," says Eleanor Creagh, Australian market strategist at Saxo Bank.
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