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The health plan operators are expected to spend R $ 383.5 billion with the help of their beneficiaries in 2030. The amount represents an increase of 157.3% over that recorded in 2017 according to the "Projection Health expenditure "Supplementary Health", carried out by the Institute of Complementary Health Studies (IESS). "This value is more than double what was spent in 2017 and ignites the sector," says Luiz Augusto Carneiro, IESS Executive Superintendent.
the economic and financial sustainability of the sector, all players in this sector must rethink the providers' remuneration model, the lack of transparency and the waste generated by errors, fraud and adverse events, as well as the lack of transparency. inclusion of new products. "The projection of the increase in social spending we are performing is very conservative, ignoring issues such as technological advances or the worsening health conditions of the population, which tends to occur with aging, "he warns. "It is fundamental to carefully examine this projection and rethink the current complementary health system."
According to the survey, considering a constant coverage rate, the effect of population growth and change in the age composition of Brazilian society, The additional health sector is expected to sign 4, 3 million more bonds by the year 2030, bringing the total number of beneficiaries to 51.6 million. If we consider only the increase in the total number of links with the medical and hospital health plans and the increase in the percentage of beneficiaries aged 59 or over, the health expenditure in 2030 would have already reached 190.7 billion reais. An increase of 27.9%.
However, the change in medical and hospital costs (HSVC), which is systematically higher than general inflation, still weighs heavily on this account. Inflation measured by the IPCA was 6.3% in 2016, while the change in medical and hospital costs increased by 20.4% according to the VCMH / IESS
Composition of Spending by Group [19659002] Today, beneficiaries aged 59 or older account for 14.2% of health insurance links, but in 2030 they must represent 20.8% of beneficiaries. In addition, beneficiaries aged 18 or older, who now account for 24% of the links with medical and hospital plans, are expected to account for 18.7% of this total by 2030.
Concurrent with the Age profile, according to the IESS Study, we will also see an increase in health expenditure. Especially among beneficiaries aged 59 or over. Between 2017 and 2030, badistance expenditures with beneficiaries under 18 years of age should increase by 31.8%. In 1965, health plans must have health expenditures of R $ 213.8 billion with recipients aged 59 and over. In contrast, beneficiaries under the age of 18 must generate social expenditures of "only" R $ 15.7 billion.
Even beneficiaries aged 19 to 58, who will continue to be responsible for the largest number of links to medical and hospital plans in 2030 (60.5% of the total), will generate an badistance expense 154 billion reais;
By 2030, the total number of badistance procedures (consultations, exams, therapies and hospitalizations) performed by beneficiaries of health insurance plans is expected to increase by 16.9%, 1.7 billion procedures performed in 2017 and exceeding the 2 billion mark in 2030.
According to the IESS projection, exams are and will continue to be the most current. In 2017, 1.2 billion tests were carried out and, by 2030, 1.4 billion tests were to be performed. However, the frequency of hospitalization is the most likely to increase. Especially because of the aging of the beneficiaries. In 2017, 8.6 million entries were made. According to the projection, 10.4 million entries should be made as early as 2030.
The total number of inquiries is expected to increase by 12.6%, from 325 million to 365.9 million. The total number of therapies is expected to fall from 186.1 million to 223.5 million, an increase of 20.1%.
Although the total number of hospitalizations is the lowest among the groups of procedures, the IESS stresses that the group accounts for more than half of social spending. "It is fundamental that health plans and businesses, which are the largest providers of plans, make progress in health promotion programs that focus on maintaining the quality of life of beneficiaries rather than solving problems. health".
Website: http://www.iess.org.br
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