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Despite the acceleration of the stock market downturn following Jair Bolsonaro's speech in Davos, financial market badysts downplay the first bad impression of Brazil's new president on the financial market.
Ibovespa, the country's leading stock index, was already weak, but accelerated losses after Bolsonaro's less than 10-minute speech. At 16:05, the index dropped from 0.95 to 95,097 points. The dollar fell and started to rise, now approaching $ 3.80. Brazilian currency gained 0.82% to R $ 3.7710.
Marcelo Giufrida, a partner of Guard Investimentos, said the new government had defined a strategy of not detailing the repercussions of pension reform
Therefore investors should not expect what whether it is about pension reform, he said.
"In particular on this point, the speech did not surprise me, there is no point in conquering everyone and not approving the reform of the Congress."
But he adds that the speech was quick and superficial and that he "missed the opportunity to do something more ambitious".
For Alvaro Bandeira, Chief Economist For the broker Modalmais, the frustration reflects a somewhat incisive speech and did not solve the problems of interest to international investors.
"It has not been more incisive to say that I will make a tax adjustment, I will proceed with the reform of Social Security," Bandeira said.
Victor Candido, of the Brokerage House Guide, added that it would be inconsistent for the government to introduce welfare reform abroad without discussing it first at the local. For him, the new sections of the bill should begin to report informally upon the return of the President of Switzerland.
Analysts say they see no risk of losing Congressional pension reform following political scandal over Flávio Bolsonaro, elected senator (PSL-RJ) and son of president
"I think that agreement is poorly explained, but it is in this initial phase during which the government has a lot of powers, "said Giufrida.
The candidate agrees that, for the moment, the situation is "under control".
The chief economist of the guide states however that it is one of three risks that must be monitored by the market. In addition to the scandal, it is necessary to monitor the functioning of the president as well as the external scenario.
The stocks are also retiring abroad on Tuesday. In the United States, the indexes fell more than 1% after the holidays that kept the markets closed. During the year, the stock markets accumulate even higher.
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