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On the eve of the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the year, the economists consulted by the Central Bank have changed their perception and are now waiting for Selic's is maintained at 6.5% by the end of 2019.
A week ago, it was expected that the base interest will end in 2019 at 7% per annum. The decision will be rendered Wednesday (6).
The inflation projections measured by the General Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2019 have been falling for three weeks. A week ago, the median of economists was up 4%. Today, it is expected to grow by 3.94% – below the target of 4.25% of BC set for this year.
Although most economists rule out any possibility of interest reduction throughout the year, some argue that the weak reaction of the economy could lead the Central Bank to further cuts.
According to Itaú, with inflation forecasts anchored around the respective goals until 2021 and in a context where the level of unused capacity of the economy remains high, the Copom should maintain the rate Selic stable at 6.5% per year. at the February meeting.
The risks of a rise or fall in the Selic rate are, according to the bank, symmetrical because of the frustrations related to the pace of economic activity that keep inflation below targets, [19659002] The base scenario of MCM Consultores, the least likely path for SELIC this year, is also a new round of reductions.
] For AC Pastore, former BC President Affonso Celso Pastore, recent data indicate that the economic recovery is still extremely slow.
The pension reform has been approved by the government and, even if the recovery remains slow, it is possible that the central bank will reduce its interest rates again in the second half of the year. However, this could only happen with "support for fiscal consolidation".
Roberto Castelo Branco, appointed by the Bolsonaro government to the presidency of the Central Bank, still has to pbad sabatine in the Senate. Until then, Ilan Goldfajn remains at the helm.
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