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In the face of so much news that has affected the behavior of the financial markets during the latter part of 2018, volatility seems to be a "new normal". "Business – at least for the next few months." In the context of tension with the US-China trade war and the global economic slowdown, the Brexit concern sparked yesterday's
Tuesday, China's Stock Exchanges Chinese Vice Premier Liu He met by phone with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss the timeline and scenario. 19659002] The shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong were helped by the latest stocks, closing the day by 0.4% and 0.3%, but the news was insufficient to wrap the other Asian markets. 0.3%, while Singapore fell by 0.4% In the West, future New York stock indexes suffer slight losses, but European markets are moving towards a more positive opening.
European currencies are The pound is in sharp decline against the dollar but remains at a low level around 20 months after the fall of the day when British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed the vote in Parliament on the UK's exit from the United Kingdom. ;Union. European Union (EU). The US currency is marginalized from its rivals, which helped mitigate the bullishness observed yesterday in a context of stabilization of US securities.
The strong foreign currency contaminated emerging badets yesterday, which caused the Brazilian stock market to reach 85,000 points and raised the dollar to R $ 3.94 during the trading session, leading to new operations by the Bank. central today, via the auction of US $ 1 billion (sale of the dollar with redemption commitment).
Nevertheless, the message that the problems of the financial markets today arises is that we must expect more sudden (and intense) movements of badets, both from positive side than the opposite side. negative. After all, until tensions are resolved, the economic boom tends to last.
The financial market continues to monitor the evolution of US-China relations, which have been an additional factor after the arrest of a woman leader. Huawei, raising doubts over the trade truce between the two countries at the G20 summit. We are also worried about the global economic slowdown.
The reversal of the US interest curve, combined with the weakening of economic indicators on activity in Europe and Asia, cast doubt on the performance of major economies in 2019. The only fact A more relevant solution, capable of providing relief for risky badets in the short term, would be for the Federal Reserve to specify the pace of monetary tightening.
The US Central Bank is meeting next week on what should be the last big event of 2018, and investors are hoping for a softer "dovish" message signaling proximity to the end of the interest rate cycle However, the Fed is expected to increase the cost of lending in the country for the fourth time this year.
On Tuesday, British Columbia, which announces the decision on tomorrow's base interest rate, will meet. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is expected to maintain Selic's stability at 6.50% for the sixth time in a row, after the end of the cycle of cuts in May.
The Copom should also adopt a dovish tone, signaling what should take more time for the beginning of the high cycle (normalization) of Selic's rate next year. There is growing awareness that the fundamental interest should remain on the historical floor longer than expected, due to weak activity and weak inflation.
Among the economic indicators, there are now regional readings of consumer prices. early December, in addition to the first glimpse of this month's IGP-M (8h). Updated harvest data for 2019 and the latest estimates for this year's crop (9am) will also be known.
Outside, the United States producer price index in November (11:30) is remarkable. strengthen the US inflation scenario, which, combined with the first signs of power loss of the country's economic activity, is expected to continue to cross the inverted rate curve, with a possible recession in the future. 39; horizon. Very early, the index of economic sentiment ZEW appeared in Germany and the euro zone in December (8h).
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