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SÃO PAULO – Last Monday (17), Bitcoin completed the year of its historical maxim, reaching $ 20,000 in a generalized euphoria scenario about digital plays. Since then, however, the world's largest cryptocurrency has already lost 86% of its value, reaching $ 3,500 on December 17, 2018.
But what happened? Did the bubble burst or was it simply a "natural" correction in a training market?
For skeptics, this year was marked by the end of Bitcoin, but for some experts and amateurs, opportunities arise in a scenario where cryptocurrencies are increasingly mature and better prepared to to cope with crises.
It is important to understand the scenario as the currency exploded. Since the beginning of 2017, Bitcoin has progressively gained space in the news and many people have discovered crypto-coins as "the future of the global economy", thinking it would be a short-term revolution
The greater the number of people entered, the higher the price reached in the last quarter of last year. According to Fernando Ulrich, chief badyst at XDEX, it was very clear at the time that a correction was imminent and he warned investors.
"For many people who have gone into euphoria, this herd effect is very damaging, of course, illustrates what I always say: study and know where you come in and see it like any other investment, that is to say you need to know what you are doing, "says Ulrich.
Safiri Felix, combined, also helped create the atmosphere of euphoria.He cites a low-volatility scenario to the l? foreign, high for other risky badets, as well as the explosion of cryptomoedas in the media, bringing to the market many people who did not understand good technology.
2018: the end of Bitcoin
The first day of 2018 already showed how unsustainable the $ 20,000 level was at that time, with bitcoin opening the year at $ 13,500 and as the price went down, all those who thought that Cryptomanic would reach levels x unimaginable began to come out, completely reversing the movement.
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This year was marked by a scenario of expectations. The technology continues to evolve, but we have seen many expectations regarding regulatory decisions around the world, which have "stuck" prices for many months, but with the lack of information that can to justify new heights, a new wave of sales has occurred in the sector.
However, more than fundamentals, investor sentiment was the most important for price definition. Economist Richard Rytenband explains that the euphoric wave of the end of 2017 has placed the level of fragility at a very high level at a very high level, that is to say that a slight deterioration of the Ecosystem would have a very negative impact on prices [19659004] From December to January, the first correction took place, but it was still possible to see many lively people waiting for a recovery in the bull market. This is clear in the price recovery movement in January, when Bitcoin returned to $ 17,000.
"But in the aftermath of the year, the bear market became clearer for everyone – in August, in the second phase of the downward trend, called recognition, characterized by discouragement and lack of interest in the market," says Richard. .
The market then entered the last phase, called capitulation, in which investors remained optimistic. throughout the low market, they begin to throw in the sponge. The economist says that in November, this stage entered the most acute phase, characterized by increasing volatility and panic in the market.
Contrary to what skeptics say, all three point out that this decline has no end. Bitcoin and all this panic is healthy, because you need to market these people who do not know what they invest. The price can be depreciated, but it is now easier for cryptomaniacs to find a fair price, over $ 3,000, but less than $ 20,000 – for the moment.
2019: The hour of recovery
Next year already begins with a scenario of possibilities. It is clear that fear will be present for those who have followed the entire market in recent years, but history – and the fundamentals – show that the time required for investment is low, and not as high as many people did end 2017. [19659004] "People go to the heights because they want to enjoy the tram and think that the badet is only going up. But in fact, it's in those times that you have to be careful, as Warren Buffett would say, if you buy an badet simply because it's so you buy for the wrong reason, " explains Ulrich. "Now, with this big turnaround, that it would be time to come in and have an exposure to the market, people are fleeing and do not want to invest."
For Safiri, the current price is quite depreciated relative to the fundamentals of technology. but on the other hand, the market is healthier than when it reached $ 20,000. "Fundamentals are set aside when that negative feeling is big," he says.
For him, the recovery tends to be very slow, but more coherent, with a projection in the medium and long term. "The next cycle will last at least a year and a half and should be cut in half, scheduled for May 2020," he says, citing the event already planned at Bitcoin where the miners' reward for creating new currency is reduced from
"During this period, the market will have to find a price of and the adoption of a new fund, which will make it profitable for farmers and miners, and the adoption must go forward, this will play a bigger role in the recovery. "
Finally, Richard warns against the signal of a large fund, sign that came since November , which creates good opportunities for investors. "We are now starting to panic, the level of fragility being very low, which means that any slight improvement in the ecosystem will have a significant positive impact on prices."
2019 begins with many challenges for the crypt market. and it is quite possible that many projects will disappear if they are not very useful, but that will not be the case with Bitcoin, which remains the largest and most important digital currency in the world.
Ulrich reminds us that it is still a new market, which we spent in 2017 was premature, slightly distorting the reality of crypto-coins. The 80% drop is nothing when we see that Bitcoin, up to March 2017, was worth less than $ 1,000. This is not the end of Bitcoin, but it is also not the time for him to go back to $ 20,000.
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