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After a few years of shortage between the 2008-2009 global crisis and the 2016 domestic climate, the year of Dilma Rousseff's removal from office, the Brazilian stock market reached record heights and broke important records in 2018. [19659002] The Ibovespa, an index that includes the largest publicly traded companies, rose from 80,000 points for the first time in mid-January and reached Thursday (29), the highest level of his 50 years of life: 89 709
However, all of these marks are only part of the story. If inflation is taken into account, stock prices have risen less than they seem and Ibovespa, which follows these prices, is still far from its actual record of ten years ago and has not not yet pbaded
.
The true stock market peak occurred in May 2008, according to the calculations of investment manager Rio Bravo at the request of UOL . If accumulated inflation was transported from there to here, these 73 516, 80 points would equate to about 133,769.66 points today. hui. Thus, Thursday's 89,709.56 points would still be 32.9% lower than the actual record .
"This means that the value of companies is still much lower today those who had invested in the stock market during this period had lower income than inflation," said the chief economist from Rio Bravo, Evandro Buccini.
Ibovespa is an index formed by the shares of the 62 major listed companies. Its score fluctuates according to the market value of these companies. This account considers their number of shares multiplied by the price of each of them. From May 2008 to October 2018 (closing period considered), Ibovespa increased by 20.43%, while inflation was 81.6% over the same period (measured by IPCA, official index IBGE awards). IBGE has not yet released any closed data on inflation for November. For the correction, Rio Bravo took into account the preview of the official index IPCA-15 of the month .
Level of end 2012 to beginning of 2013
In fact, the maximum reached in 2018 (89,709.56 points) resumes the level of end of 2012 and beginning of 2013, when we consider the inflation of the period. The score of time (between 50,000 and 60,000 points) would be between 80,000 and 90,000 points today. In the future, the stock market would fall in tandem with the economy, which had stagnated in 2014 and experienced a two-year recession in 2015 and 2016.
"We have been facing a fairly significant crisis these in recent years, which is naturally reflected in the share price, "said Easynvest's commercial director, Fabio Macedo. "The companies have had worse results, increased their debt [medida do grau de endividamento] and worsened in several financial indicators, which are still lower than those of 2008."
Bolsa yielded less than fixed-income securities
Another way to update the Ibovespa and compare it to the past by mitigating the effect of inflation is to correct it by the CDI (Certificate Interbank deposits). The CDI is a rate that follows the basic interest rates of the economy (Selic) and serves as a benchmark for remunerating some of the major fixed income investments, such as CBDs and bills of lading.
"These comparisons are important because they allow investors an badysis of how much their income would have been if they had applied it to one thing instead of another," Buccini said. Rio Bravo.
By this measure, today's Ibovespa is even further removed from the historical maxim: if, since May 20, 2008, his score had accompanied the CDI of that period, he would have reached this week at 208,258.39. The 89,709.56 points of the current peak are less than half: 56.92% below.
The change in CDI was 183.28% from here to here. Those who invested in a fixed-income security following the CDI in May 2008 almost tripled the end of November 2018. This is much more than 81.6% of inflation and well above the 20.43% of Ibovespa.
"It was a period of very high inflation and interest rates, in addition to the deep recession we are experiencing from 2014 to 2016, which"
Does this mean-t it be time to invest in the stock market?
The fact that Ibovespa – and therefore many of the shares of the stock market – have already had higher in the past is actually an indicator that they are still far from their potential and that they have still a margin of progress. "This is not just because Ibovespa is low and far from the record that she will come back on this plateau again," Buccini said.
"The good performance of the stock market depends on a number of fundamental reasons and may take time to come back to this point."
The crossroads of a high public debt, the expectation of reforms still uncertain, such as social security, and a global economy Safe foreign investors who are moving away from emerging countries and who are running more than risks are factors that move the current scenario away from those of 2008.
In this world of the pre-financial collapse of 2008 and 2009 of the world and Brazilian economy there was an abundance of emerging countries were fashionable and the price of commodities, such as oil and iron ore, which are an important part of the Brazilian economy, also broke historical records.
leaving the bottom of the well, the outlook is good for the stock market. "Companies are showing improvements in their indicators," said Macedo from Easynvest. "One is expecting an appreciation [da Bolsa] in the coming years and it's a good time to diversify the portfolio and invest in a variable income."
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