Bolsonaro takes the far right on the plateau | Brazil

The echoes of the economic recession that lasted until 2017 and the corruption charges made against the Workers Party, led by 13 years, open space for the ascension of the president with authoritarian characteristics making the Praising the era of the military dictatorship, joking about social achievements and aligning with the leaders of the United States, Israel, Italy and Hungary. Bolsonaro was democratically elected in the second round with the vote of nearly 58 million Brazilians on October 28, defeating Fernando Haddad of the PT. Neither its threat to cut labor rights, reduce environmental defenses, limit investments in culture and place the country under religious conservatism.

The new president of Brazil is the great novelty that has emerged as an anti-system "against everything" there is ", even after being fed for 28 years the same national policy that a parliamentarian after leaving the army. He left the "lower clergy" of Congress, label of politicians acting marginally, directly to the presidency of the country, which has 209 million inhabitants and a GDP of 6.56 billion reais. He sailed the shattered seas by investigating Lava Jet and the depressed economy of the Dilma years with an anti-left speech, reviving the twentieth-century Cold War. , socialism, populism and attrition of family values, "he said a few days after his confirmation of the presidency at the polls.

He reinforced his position by announcing that he was withdrawing the invitation made by the diplomacy of President Michel Temer to the leaders of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua should appear on the first day of this month.Their ministers and the parliamentarians of their party, including three political children, support the story of the attack against the "reds", the color of the PT in Brazil, this badociate

Brazil no longer fears the military as at the time of the dictatorship that lasted for 21 years, and Bolsonaro comes to power surrounded by people. As promised during the campaign, his deputy, Hamilton Mourão, is a reserve general, and seven of the 22 ministers officially taking office on January 2 are also military or have been trained in the army. Other government There have also been ministers of the military, but with Bolsonaro they are more numerous and some are reinforcing other ministries. One of them, the reserve general Carlos Alberto Santos Cruz, will occupy the post of minister of the Secretary of the Government and will share with another minister, Onyx Lorenzoni, a civilian, the power of articulation with the Congress, which represents a greater control of negotiations with parliamentarians. "A member of parliament will dare delay negotiations with the government in the presence of a minister of the army?"

Nothing seems strange in Brazil from 2018, on the contrary. For the moment, 75% of Brazilians support the measures adopted by Bolsonaro during this period of transition, as shown by an investigation by the Ibope Institute. The optimism surrounding the change of government has also raised expectations for the economy: 47% of respondents in a Datafolha survey show that the unemployment rate will fall in the coming months, a record since 1995. "It's honeymoon Claudio Couto, political scientist from São Paulo

The question is whether this euphoria will really be protected from 1 January and how long will last the entire duration of the Bolsonaro government. This is the million dollar question posed by the diplomats of all the nations that have relations with Brazil since the confirmation of the ex-military presidency on October 28. Bolsonaro had 64 days of tries to determine what will be the highest rank of the most important country in Latin America During these two months, he has been committed to sending messages to satisfy the wishes of his constituents and to strengthen the image of the popular anti-left leader.

and expanding his own clothes – has sparked controversies such as the refusal to host the Brazil Climate Conference in 2019 (COP 25), as planned. He also showed contempt for the Paris Agreement, announced the intention to turn the Brazilian Embbady in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and that Brazil should withdraw from the Global Compact on Migration , signed by 160 countries.

Serpents, Bolsonaro has gigantic enemies that are often smaller than what he presents. Immigrants, for example, account for 0.4% of the Brazilian population. His speech, however, aims to coincide with that of other right-wing leaders, as well as that of President Donald Trump, which Bolsonaro deliberately imitates. The United States applauds at his disposal, but will be represented only by the Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, in possession of Bolsonaro.

In addition to marketing, the new president begins under a cloud of suspicion as to the finesse with which he blames his opponents the news that one of his friends, Fabrício Queiroz, former advisor to his son Flavio Bolsonaro, has made suspicious transactions with money, at a value well above his income. Queiroz worked as a driver for the president-elect's son. Invited to give explanations to the prosecutor's office, he failed three times and has already provoked a campaign in social networks with "Onde está Queiroz?"

Outside Brazil, there is a real discomfort among the actors who depend on the country to know everything about the country. will be accommodated from this 1st of January. The perception is that Bolsonaro is still attached to the euphoria of the winning candidate and that he was not wearing the thoughtful and conciliatory presidential clothes that he should. "For all that he said, it's a play on words to please his constituents, and we'll have to see how much he's going to actually put into practice," says a worried diplomat for his companies. country in Brazil. The vagueness of his speeches already has consequences, says Oliver Stuenkel, a specialist in international relations. "The costs generated by foreign policy in Bolsonaro are already enormous, especially in the climate file, which Brazil could lead," said Stuenkel, traveling among diplomats around the world.

Uncertainty, such as that of agriculture, Teresa Cristina, who proposed to reduce the number of inspections at meat cutters so that each contractor carries out his own check. On another front, the 52 deputies elected by his party, the social-liberal party, also left relations with the legislature in abeyance. Parliamentarians, many of whom are in public office for the first time, have organized internal and anti-political battles, even with physical aggression. To mark this position, the PT and another leftist party, the PSOL, also constantly attacked by Bolsonaro, decided not to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new president. A sign that worries when Brazil must approve urgent reforms, such as social security.

The game really begins now and, without a clear north, Bolsonaro could lose strength if his aggressive style came to complicate the economy. and affects the part that hurts ordinary people in any part of the world: the pocket. Economic recovery is essential if the elected president remains in power with initial support. With an unemployment rate of 11.6%, Brazil is still recovering from a two-year recession, with high informality and GDP growth slightly above 1.3% this year. The new government has considerable room for maneuver in a country that has frozen public spending for at least a decade and is aimed at reducing the size of the state.

"People elected me because they want less state and more market," repeats the new president. Oliver Stuenkel sees here a paradox for the Brazilians. "If the economy grows, Bolsonaro will feel safe not to play by the rules," he said. It would be a bit like Trump in the United States, with the difference that American institutions are much stronger than Brazilian institutions. "It's as if the growth of the economy was dangerous for democracy in Brazil," he warns. In other words, people's tolerance of changes in the rules of the democratic game can increase if the economy is doing well. For now, these are speculation exercises on an unwanted perception of a government that is starting now.