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It may be nearly a decade in Brazil to regain the level of unemployment that it had before the crisis, if the country develops in the next few years at the pace projected for 2019. Indeed even after the end of the recession, the slow recovery of the economy and the postponement of investment has blocked the labor market.
The Central Bank 's latest Focus Bulletin predicts that the country' s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will increase by about 2.5% next year. This is a better than expected result for 2018, at 1.5%, but well below what the market imagined early in the year.
Researchers from the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre), the FGV and the Applied Economics Research Institute (Ipea) have similar projections, predicting growth of between 2.4 % and 2.7% in 2019. If the country maintains an average growth of 2.5% per annum, the unemployment rate, according to the National Household Sample Survey (Pnad) Continuous, IBGE, will return only to the 6.8% recorded in 2014, in almost a decade, according to consulting firm Schwartsman and Associates
Excessive laziness of the productive sector and weak domestic demand have led to a slow recovery in formal employment, says Alexander Schwartsman, former director of the Central Bank. "The job market is better than a year ago, but it's still informal work – less skilled and with lower wages – that reacts more strongly."
The projection of the consulting firm envisages several growth scenarios for the country. and how much the unemployment rate would fall in each one of them. If the country grows by an average of 4% a year, for example, unemployment will return to its pre-crisis level in four or five years.
If the next government succeeds in adopting a robust program of reforms in Congress and report According to Schwartsman, the trajectory of public debt, confidence and investment come back stronger and should warm the economy and the market job.
He points out however that if unemployment falls below 9%, although positive for the worker would be enough to put pressure on prices and wages and increase inflation.
Slow and Gradual
Economists Heard by the Newspaper The State of São Paulo It took the country about ten years to reach the low unemployment rate he knew before the crisis and this process will be slow until the labor market is restored.
Alexandre Soares, 32, feels this delay in the skin. . He leaves the house every day, sees job offers, asks for vacancies from his neighbors and fills out job listings for jobs under formal contract. To pay for his conduct and get change, he plays the violin at the door of an employment agency located in a train station in São Paulo.
"I learned to play in my childhood, in the orphanage in which I grew up.Music helped me through difficult times in my youth and now, it helps to ensure the minimum support, "he said. He says he's looking for a job as a servant, janitor or bricklayer for over a year, but can not find employment. "When I think it's going to work, there is a 'no' thing that happens, I think the wait will be long."
According to the Pnad, unemployment was 11, 7%, or 12.4 million people. Although unemployment has declined in recent months, researchers believe the average unemployment rate for 2018 will be 12.2%, making this year the second worst year in the historical series.
For Economist of the Institute of Economic Research (Fipe), Eduardo Zylberstajn, even though the job market is showing signs of improvement this year, performance remains tentative compared to the number of Jobs lost during the crisis
. to be very optimistic about the job market, even if it has improved a lot. "
For Zylberstajn, the sectors that have been deeply affected in recent years, such as construction, have growth potential in 2019." Although major infrastructure works are still under control, due from the lack of investment, the real estate market is starting to indicate that it could have better years. "The information is taken from the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo.
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